The solar and Southern Oscillation components in the satellite altimetry data

Abstract

With satellite altimetry data accumulating over the past two decades, the mean sea level (MSL) can now be measured to unprecedented accuracy. We search for physical processes which can explain the sea level variations and find that at least 70% of the variance in the annually smoothed detrended altimetry data can be explained as the combined effect of both the solar forcing and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The phase of the solar component can be used to derive the different steric and eustatic contributions. We find that the peak to peak radiative forcing associated with the solar cycle is 1.33 ± 0.34 W/m 2 , contributing a 4.4 ± 0.8 mm variation. The slow eustatic component (describing, for example, the cryosphere and large bodies of surface water) has a somewhat smaller peak to peak amplitude of 2.4 ± 0.6 mm. Its phase implies that warming the oceans increases the ocean water loss rate. Additional much smaller terms include a steric feedback term and a fast eustatic term. The ENSO contributes a peak to peak variation of 5.5 ± 0.8 mm, predominantly through a direct effect on the MSL and significantly less so indirectly through variations in the radiative forcing.

The Earth’s climate system recurrent & multi-scale lagged responses: empirical law, evidence, consequent solar explanation of recent CO<sub>2</sub> increases & preliminary analysis

“…we have also verified two cases of SL lag analyses developed by Howard et al (2015) and van de Plassche et al (2003), associated with forcing periods of 12 and 650 yrs and corresponding estimated lags of ~2 and ~120 yrs, respectively. It must be mentioned that the extrapolation of the 10 Be record, required to justify the existence of a forcing period of around 650 yrs (shown in Appendix A, in Fig.…”

“…Based also on the obtained power law equations, we have verified the cases of SL lag analyses developed by Howard et al (2015;hereafter H15) and van de Plassche et al (2003;hereafter vdP03). Firstly, in order to verify the forcing period of 12 yrs and the corresponding lag of ~2 yrs estimated by H15, we look for the lag that corresponds to a forcing period of 12 yrs.…”

The response of clouds and aerosols to cosmic ray decreases

“…We now turn to the physics of the measured changes in the observed parameters and calculate whether the changes are within the expected range. Based on observations of the energy entering the oceans over a solar cycle, a peak to peak variation of 1–1.5 W/m 2 is found in the radiative budget [ Shaviv , ; Howard et al , ]. This change has been associated with an absolute change of ≈2% in low cloud fraction (corresponding to an ≈5% relative change in low cloud fraction).…”

“…Bondo et al [] suggest that an aerosol effect could be observable under atmospheric conditions while general circulation modeling gives rise to much smaller responses in the CCNs [ Kazil et al , ; Pierce and Adams , ; Snow‐Kropla et al , ; Yu and Luo , ]. Of these studies, Yu and Luo [] find a response almost an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates but still insufficient to explain the large observed variations in the ocean heat content over the solar cycle [ Shaviv , ; Howard et al , ]. The above uncertainties make it is desirable to use observations to better constrain a possible effect.…”

Climate change and agriculture

“…Nor is there evidence to indicate that climate change is causing sea levels to rise (Howard et al 2015), although one might expect this if oceans undergo thermal expansion due to warming and glaciers located over land melt (as melting sea ice does not increase sea levels). The problem is that some coastal areas are subsiding (partly due to groundwater withdrawals), while others are lifted up due to natural forces (e.g., tectonic plate movements); measurement is also a problem as gauges are affected by storm surges and subsidence, amongst other factors.…”