The solar cycle and Indian rainfall

Reddy, R. S.; Neralla, V. R.; Godson, W. L.

doi:10.1007/bf00867947

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…A few of the recent papers are Reddy et al [1989], Hiremath and Mandi [2004], and Kodera [2004], all of which contain relevant information, not inconsistent with our results.…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 79%

The Indian summer monsoon during peaks in the 11 year sunspot cycle

Loon

Meehl

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] An analysis of sea-level pressure anomalies at 14 sunspot peaks in the 11 year solar cycle in the Indian region in summer shows that the mean sea level pressure anomalies consist of relatively high pressure over land surrounded by low pressure anomalies over the sea. This signal is robust enough to appear when the data are divided into two segments. The accompanying mean rainfall anomalies, with anomalies as high as 20% above normal, have maxima on the coasts and over water and are an enhancement of the mean Indian monsoon rainfall. In the sunspot peaks the Findlater Jet appears to shift east and strengthen somewhat, consistent with the lower sea level pressure and stronger monsoon rainfall. Citation: van Loon, H., and G. A. Meehl (2012), The Indian summer monsoon during peaks in the 11 year sunspot cycle,

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“…A few of the recent papers are Reddy et al [1989], Hiremath and Mandi [2004], and Kodera [2004], all of which contain relevant information, not inconsistent with our results.…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 79%

The Indian summer monsoon during peaks in the 11 year sunspot cycle

Loon

Meehl

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Spectral peaks at the 100 to 12-0-year cycle were identified in Kenyan rainfall data (Mutulu et al, 1988). A significant ll-year cycle was found in the Indian monsoon (June to September) rainfall for the period 1871-1984 (Reddy et al, 1989). Again, the 10-ll-year solar cycle was evidenced in the four summer monsoon months rainfall amounts for several regions in India (Kumares Mitra et al, 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Sunspot numbers as a possible indicator of annual rainfall at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Seleshi

Demarée

Delleur

1994

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The variability of the Sun's luminosity is thought to have effects on the world climate. This variability is partly measured by the sunspot numbers. In this paper the statistical link between sunspot numbers and Addis Ababa rainfall is established. For this purpose a transfer function plus noise model (TFN) is constructed, with Box-Cox transformed annual sunspot numbers, X,, as input and annual Addis Ababa monsoon rainfall, x, as output. This model explains 50.2 per cent of the annual rainfall variability in the period . The time series of the sunspot numbers is simulated by an autoregressive model and then used to provide the input forecasts to the TFN model; it explains 88.9 per cent of the annual sunspot numbers variability.The TFN model is utilized for long-range annual rainfall forecasts. A check of the forecasting skill of the TFN model is performed by fitting the TFN model to the 1900-1970 data and forecasts are made for 1971-1991. The results show that 14 out of 21 forecasts generally track the observed rainfall. The correlation coefficient C between the forecast and observed rainfall is 0-58, whereas for the sunspot numbers C yields 087. The paired t-test shows that the forecasts and the observed rainfall are statistically similar at the 95 per cent confidence level.A general physical mechanism that may partly explain how the variability of the Sun's luminosity is related to the world climate is suggested. It is proposed that for those regions whose climatic variables exhibit the 11-year periodicity, the TFN model approach can be used to find a statistical link between the sunspot numbers and the climatic variables. Furthermore if a global pattern in such a link is found, it may be used for exploring the physical mechanisms of Sun-climate relationships.KEY WORDS Addis Ababa rainfall Sunspot numbers AR ARMA Multiplicative ARMA Transfer function plus noise analysis

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“…While the influence of El Ninõ Southern Oscillations (ENSO) related meteorological phenomenon on ISMR in the Peninsular India is reasonably well understood (Pant et al, 1988;Reddy et al, 1989;Bhalme et al, 1990;Kane, 1998), limited efforts have been made to establish any influence they may have on the precipitation in the NWH (Shreshtha et al, 2000). Since the winter precipitation in the NWH occurs under the influence of westerly disturbances, originating from the Mediterranean and the Caspian Sea or the Atlantic, the precipitation variation in the NWH may be related to the shifts in the NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) Archer and Fowler, 2004).…”

Section: Precipitation Variation and Global Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Significant periodicity of 2.2 to 4.3 years in power spectrum analyses of the precipitation series (Table VI) appears to correspond to the influence of the stratospheric quasibiennial oscillations (QBO) and ENSO-related meteorological phenomenon. Similarly, periodicity on the decadal scale (8.3-19.3 years) corresponds to the solar forcing related to double sunspot cycles (Hale), indicating their influence on the decadal and multi-decadal scale (Bhalme and Mooley, 1981;Bhalme et al, 1990;Ananthakrishnan and Parthasarathy, 1984;Reddy et al, 1989;Ogurtsov et al, 2002;Agnihotri and Dutta, 2003;Solanki et al, 2004). On the lower frequency range, tri-to multi-decadal variability, related to sunspot activity, is revealed in a comparatively strong periodicity between 29 and 34 years and between 58 and 64 years at Shimla and Leh (significant at 99% confidence level).…”

Section: Precipitation Variation and Global Teleconnectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006

Bhutiyani¹,

Kale

Pawar

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

425

193

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Using available instrumental records, this paper examines the variation of precipitation from 1866 to 2006 in the northwestern Himalaya (NWH). The study indicates no trend in the winter precipitation but significant decreasing trend in the monsoon precipitation during the study period. Periodicities on a multi-decadal scale (29-34 years and 58-64 years) obtained in power spectrum analyses point towards epochal behaviour in the precipitation series. Analyses of the temperature data show significant increasing trends in annual temperature in all three stations in the NWH during the data period. Warming effect is particularly noteworthy during the winter season. Negative relationships between mean winter air temperature and snowfall amounts recorded at different meteorological stations in this period reveal strong effect of rising temperatures on the decreasing snowfall component in total winter precipitation, reducing effective duration of winter on the windward side of the Pir Panjal Himalayan Range.The study also shows influence of global teleconnections [North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during winter months and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during the monsoon months] on precipitation fluctuations in the NWH. The teleconnections that appear to exist between the precipitation and the temperature until the late 1960s seem to have weakened considerably in the last three decades. This may be ascribed to the diminishing effect of the natural factors such as quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), double sunspot cycles (Hale), etc., in this period. Role of increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cannot be ruled out.

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The solar cycle and Indian rainfall

Cited by 13 publications

References 17 publications

The Indian summer monsoon during peaks in the 11 year sunspot cycle

The Indian summer monsoon during peaks in the 11 year sunspot cycle

Sunspot numbers as a possible indicator of annual rainfall at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006

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