A three‐dimensional stochastic analysis of the contaminant transport problem is developed in the spirit of Naff (1990). The new derivation is more general and simpler than previous analysis. The fast Fourier transformation is used extensively to obtain numerical estimates of the mean concentration and various spatial moments. Data from both the Borden and Cape Cod experiments are used to test the methodology. Results are comparable to results obtained by other methods, and to the experiments themselves.
A two‐level point stochastic model for the rainfall occurrences at a given rainfall station is constructed in the time dimension. The model is a cluster process of the Neyman‐Scott type. The model has the rainfall‐generating mechanisms as its primary level and the rainfalls that are generated by these mechanisms as the secondary level. It uses infinite superposition of rainfalls and has a very flexible dependence structure. The model is fitted to daily rainfall sequences in Indiana after these are stationarized by a transformation. The fit of the model is then tested in terms of its correlation and marginal probability characteristics. The present form of the Neyman‐Scott cluster model is time homogeneous. Therefore the Neyman‐Scott process, as presented in this paper, may be of practical use only for modeling the stationary rainfall occurrences.
Stochastic linear models are fitted to hydrologic data for two main reasons: to enable forecasts of the data one or more time periods ahead and to enable the generation of sequences of synthetic data. These techniques are of considerable importance to the design and operation of water resource systems. Short sequences of data lead to uncertainties in the estimation of model parameters and to doubts about the appropriateness of particular time series models. A premium is placed on models that are economical in terms of the number of parameters required. One such family of models is multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Arima) models that have been described by G. E. P. Box and G. M. Jenkins. In this paper we illustrate the process of identifying the particular member of the family that fits logarithms of monthly flows, estimating the parameters, and checking the fit. The seasonal Arima model accounts for the seasonal variability in the monthly means but not the seasonal variability of the monthly standard deviations: for this reason its value is limited. The forecasting of flows one or more months ahead is described with an example.
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