The Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX)

Wan, Qilin; Wang, Bin; Wong, Wai Kin; Hu, Zhiqun; Jou, Ben Jong‐Dao; Wang, Danyang; Johnson, Richard H.; Chang, Chih-Hsiung; Zhu, Yuejian; Zhang, Xubin; Wang, Hui; Xia, Rudi; Ma, Juhui; Zhang, Dalin; Gao, Mengxiang; Zhang, Yijun; Liu, Xi; Chen, Yangruixue; Huang, Huijun; Bao, Xinghua; Ruan, Zheng; Zhe-hu, Cui; Meng, Zhiyong; Sun, Jing; Wu, Meng‐Wen; Hong-yan, Wang; Peng, Xindong; Qian, Weimiao; Zhao, Kun; Xiao, Yanjiao

doi:10.1175/bams-d-15-00235.1

Cited by 158 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Meanwhile, CAPEs of the surface air parcels range from 2,280 to 2,933 J/kg, while TPW ranges from 56 to 67 mm. These magnitudes are comparable with those found in several other extreme rainfall events during SCMREX (e.g., Luo et al, ; Wang et al, ; Wu & Luo, ). Moreover, the horizontal winds veer from southeasterly to southwesterly in the lowest 100 hPa (Figure ), which is consistent with the warm advection shown in Figures a and b.…”

Section: Case Overviewsupporting

confidence: 90%

An Extreme Rainfall Event in Coastal South China During SCMREX‐2014: Formation and Roles of Rainband and Echo Trainings

et al. 2018

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In this study, an extreme rainfall event of 451 mm in 20 hr that occurred in coastal South China on 11 May 2014 during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment is investigated using integrated observations from the dual‐Doppler radar pair, polarimetric radar, extensive mesonetwork, and enhanced upper‐air soundings. Results show the generation of the extreme rainfall by two consecutive mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) consisting of multiple meso‐β‐scale rainbands. The two MCSs are maintained by lifting southerly oceanic flows over a quasi‐stationary mesoscale outflow boundary (MOB) along the coastline that are enhanced by convectively generated weak cold pool. Northeastward “echo training” of convective cells, under the influence of environmental southwesterly flows, leads to the formation of the multiple rainbands in each MCS. Their subsequent propagations in a “rainband training” form, together with the echo training, along the coastline account for the production of extreme rainfall. The second MCS is characterized with a leading bowing rainband showing a process of rapid splitting and reestablishment (RSRE), which contributes to the formation of the rainband training. The occurrence of the RSRE process requires ample supply of unstable upstream oceanic air mass, the quasi‐stationary MOB, and a bowing rainband intersecting with the MOB. The second MCS produces more precipitation than the first one as a result of more rainbands, stronger convective intensity, and more moderate‐sized raindrops with larger maximal sizes. The above findings, especially the RSRE process and its associated storm internal circulation, appear to add new Insights into the formation and maintenance of training rainbands and their roles in heavy rainfall production.

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Section: Case Overviewsupporting

confidence: 90%

An Extreme Rainfall Event in Coastal South China During SCMREX‐2014: Formation and Roles of Rainband and Echo Trainings

et al. 2018

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“…The ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts used in this work are provided by ECMWF, JMA, KMA, CMA, and U.S. NCEP (Table ) and downloaded from the TIGGE data archive. The forecasts are interpolated (by the TIGGE portal) into a common 0.5° × 0.5° horizontal grid and have a time interval of 6 h. This study uses quality‐controlled, gauge‐based rainfall observations provided by the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) [ Luo et al ., ], which is a Research and Development Project of the World Weather Research Programme. There were roughly 10,000 rain gauges in south China with an average distance of about 10 km.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

Huang

Luo

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April–June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013–2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light‐to‐heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm‐moist air into south China by the low‐level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30–36 h to 18–24 h to 6–12 h for the cases with large‐scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

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“…Warm‐season heavy rainfall in south China can sometimes sustain for tens of hours (e.g., Davis & Lee, ; Li et al, ; Luo et al, ; Zhang et al, ). Distinct rainfall characteristics and dynamical mechanisms of precipitation have been noticed in different rainfall stages of persistent rainfall events (e.g., Gao et al, ; Wang et al, , 2014b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Synoptic‐Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China

Zhang

Meng

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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This study investigates the stage‐dependent rainfall forecast skills and the associated synoptic‐scale features in a persistent heavy rainfall event in south China, Guangdong Province, during 29–31 March 2014, using operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. This persistent rainfall was divided into two stages with a better precipitation forecast skill in Stage 2 (S2) than Stage 1 (S1) although S2 had a longer lead time. Using ensemble‐based sensitivity analysis, key synoptic‐scale factors that affected the rainfall were diagnosed by correlating the accumulated precipitation of each stage to atmospheric state variables in the middle of respective stage. The precipitation in both stages was found to be significantly correlated with midlevel trough, low‐level vortex, and particularly the low‐level jet on the southeast flank of the vortex and its associated moisture transport. The rainfall forecast skill was mainly determined by the forecast accuracy in the location of the low‐level jet, which was possibly related to the different juxtapositions between the direction of the movement of the low‐level vortex and the orientation of the low‐level jet. The uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S1 was mainly from the location uncertainty of the low‐level jet, while the uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S2 was mainly from the width uncertainty of the low‐level jet with the relatively accurate location of the low‐level jet.

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The Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX)

Cited by 158 publications

References 33 publications

An Extreme Rainfall Event in Coastal South China During SCMREX‐2014: Formation and Roles of Rainband and Echo Trainings

An Extreme Rainfall Event in Coastal South China During SCMREX‐2014: Formation and Roles of Rainband and Echo Trainings

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

Impact of Synoptic‐Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China

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