We perform a global Bayesian analysis of currently available neutrino data, putting data from oscillation experiments, neutrinoless double beta decay (0νββ), and precision cosmology on an equal footing. We evaluate the discovery potential of future 0νββ experiments and the Bayes factor of the two possible neutrino mass ordering schemes for different prior choices. We show that the indication for normal ordering is still very mild and does not strongly depend on realistic prior assumptions or different combinations of cosmological data sets. We find a wide range for 0νββ discovery potential, depending on the absolute neutrino mass scale, mass ordering and achievable background level.
INTRODUCTIONNeutrino physics is one of the most attractive fields to look for new physics, and many parameters in the neutrino sector are not yet determined. A series of oscillation experiments has established the fact that at least two neutrino masses are distinct from zero, but their smallness cannot be accommodated within the Standard Model of Particle Physics. Furthermore, quantities like the Dirac phase δ CP describing the difference between matter and antimatter, the absolute neutrino mass scale, or the mass ordering (i.e., which neutrino is the lightest) are currently only poorly restricted [1]. The even more fundamental question of whether neutrinos are of Majorana or of Dirac nature (i.e., whether they are identical to their antiparticles, or not) is also still unanswered. A global analysis, combining all relevant experimental results and using the current data as efficiently as possible, is the most suitable way to address these open issues. It additionally informs upcoming experimental choices.The first fully comprehensive Bayesian analysis of this kind is presented in this letter. We use information from oscillation experiments, precision cosmology, and neutrinoless double beta decay (0νββ). While previous works focus mostly on one of these aspects, we adopt a fully global view. Our analysis is based on the minimal framework of three light Majorana neutrinos, the most predictive setting for neutrino physics. We use global oscillation data from the nu-fit collaboration [1], cosmological data from the Planck Legacy Archive (PLA), 1 and data from the 0νββ-experiments KamLAND-Zen [2], , and GERDA [4]. We do not include single β decay results as they currently do not provide additional constraints.We extract the implications for future 0νββ-experiments and also address whether current data may already exhibit a tendency towards the normal ordering scheme -which is currently under intense debate [5][6][7][8].Bayes' Theorem provides the logical path from the probability of data under different hypotheses H i , 1 Based on observations by Planck (http://www.esa.int/Planck). P (D|H i ), to the probability of a hypothesis being correct given the data. It requires the explicit definition of prior probabilities. Any other approach is either incoherent (for a discussion of p-values as evidence, see e.g. [9]), requires predefined error ...