The System for Numerical Prediction of Weather Events (Including Severe Ones) for Moscow Megacity: The Prototype Development

Rivin, G. S.; Vil’fand, R. M.; Kiktev, D. B.; Rozinkina, I. A.; Tudriy, K. O.; Blinov, D. V.; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Bundel, A. Yu.; Kirsanov, A. A.; Zakharchenko, D. I.

doi:10.3103/s1068373919110025

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…In comparison with other urban canopy schemes, TU is much simpler, but provides reasonable results for three cities considered in our study and for more cities in previous studies ( [12,[36][37][38][39][40][41][42]). Additionally, it realistically represents urban effects in the lower atmosphere by capturing the urban-induced modification of precipitation patters [34].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

“…Recent studies over Moscow megacity demonstrated the ability of the TU parameterization to capture the UHI and other urban-induced meso-climatic effects and confirmed that it is a useful tool for urban climate research, especially if the city-descriptive parameters are improved [34,35]. Moreover, TU scheme has been already implemented in the high-resolution numerical weather forecasts for Moscow megacity with grid spacing of 1 km and 500 m within the framework of the COSMO-Ru system [36,37]. The TU scheme has been previously evaluated offline (forced with observations) for Basel, Toulouse and Singapore [38,39] and online (coupled to COSMO-CLM v5) for Berlin, Belgium and Kampala [12,[40][41][42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

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Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Garbero¹,

Milelli

Mercogliano

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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The increase in built surfaces constitutes the main reason for the formation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI), that is a metropolitan area significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The urban heat islands and other urban-induced climate feedbacks may amplify heat stress and urban flooding under climate change and therefore to predict them correctly has become essential. Currently in the COSMO model, cities are represented by natural land surfaces with an increased surface roughness length and a reduced vegetation cover, but this approach is unable to correctly reproduce the UHI effect. By increasing the model resolution, a representation of the main physical processes that characterize the urban local meteorology should be addressed, in order to better forecast temperature, moisture and precipitation in urban environments. Within the COSMO Consortium a bulk parameterization scheme (TERRA_URB or TU) has been developed. It parametrizes the effects of buildings, streets and other man-made impervious surfaces on energy, moist and momentum exchanges between the surface and atmosphere, and additionally accounts for the anthropogenic heat flux as a heat source from the surface to the atmosphere. TU implements an impervious water-storage parameterization, and the Semi-empirical Urban canopy parametrization (SURY) that translates 3D urban canopy into bulk parameters. This paper presents evaluation results of the TU scheme in high-resolution simulations with a recent COSMO model version for selected European cities, namely Turin, Naples and Moscow. The key conclusion of the work is that the TU scheme in the COSMO model reasonably reproduces UHI effect and improves air temperature forecasts for all the investigated urban areas, despite each city has very different morphological characteristics. Our results highlight potential benefits of a new turbulence scheme and the representation of skin-layer temperature (for vegetation) in the model performance. Our model framework provides perspectives for enhancing urban climate modelling, although further investigations in improving model parametrizations, calibration and the use of more realistic urban canopy parameters are needed.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 62%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Garbero¹,

Milelli

Mercogliano

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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“…During the cold season of 2018-2019, the same technique was implemented with the use of daily forecasts of ICON model, developed by the weather service of Germany. This model has the highest accuracy of winter precipitation forecast, comparing with other global NWP models [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Comparison of snow water equivalent estimates calculated by SnoWE and ICON models on the example of the Kama river basin

Shikhov

Churiulin

2020

E3S Web Conf.

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More recently, snow accumulation and snowmelt models for their calculations are forced to apply data from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This approach allows improvement the accuracy of calculating snow water equivalent (SWE) values especially in remote and mountain regions. In this study, we compared the numerical results of SWE calculations performed by two independent models. The first one is the SnoWE model and the second one is the ICON NWP model. During the period from November 2018 to May 2019, the simulation results of SWE compared with in-situ data from 64 snow surveys, which are located in the Kama river basin. We found that both models (SnoWE and ICON) allow getting satisfactory estimates of the maximum values of SWE (the accuracy of data is sufficient for their practical using). The root mean square error was equal 14-18% from the average measured SWE. Moreover, we got reliable maximum values of SWE for forested areas. At the same time, both models underestimate SWE values during spring snowmelt season. Probably, this underestimation is due to the shortcomings of the models and a sparse snow course-measuring network.

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Urban aerosol, its radiative and temperature response in comparison with urban canopy effects in megacity based on COSMO-ART modeling

Chubarova,

Androsova,

Kirsanov

et al. 2024

Urban Climate

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The System for Numerical Prediction of Weather Events (Including Severe Ones) for Moscow Megacity: The Prototype Development

Cited by 14 publications

References 14 publications

Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Evaluating the Urban Canopy Scheme TERRA_URB in the COSMO Model for Selected European Cities

Comparison of snow water equivalent estimates calculated by SnoWE and ICON models on the example of the Kama river basin

Urban aerosol, its radiative and temperature response in comparison with urban canopy effects in megacity based on COSMO-ART modeling

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