The testing and verification of contrail forecasts using pilot observations from aircraft

Abstract

Contrail forecasting techniques used within the UK Meteorological Office have changed little since the early 1940s and there has been no formal verification of the results. Recent research has shown that old forecasting techniques may not be wholly applicable to modern aircraft that now use more efficient engines. In order to compare the performance of both the old and new forecasting techniques a validation trial was carried out over a nine‐month period in which RAF pilots reported when and where contrails did and did not occur. These observations were compared with the predicted contrail levels from both the old and newer forecasting techniques. The results indicate that both techniques give a similar performance and that neither significantly out‐perform a simple persistence prediction. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society

Aviation-Contrail Impacts on Climate and Climate Change: A Ready-to-Wear Research Mantle for Geographers

“…These conditions contrast with those typically attending outbreaks in the Northeast or Southeast subregions, which show a greater influence of wind shear at the jet-stream level. Such composite analyses of the regionally specific synoptic climatologies of contrail outbreaks both confirm and expand on the aspatial aggregations developed by meteorologists (e.g., Appleman 1953;Pilié and Jiusto 1958;Schrader 1997;Kästner, Meyer, and Wendling 1999) and provide a useful foundation for reliable near-real-time, statistically based predictions of persisting contrails (Travis, Carleton, and Changnon 1997;Moss 1999;Jackson et al 2001). …”

Composite Atmospheric Environments of Jet Contrail Outbreaks for the United States

“…Determining the atmospheric conditions associated with persisting contrails and outbreaks is important for reasons in addition to their potential climatic impact, and include the military and strategic requirements of aircraft stealth (Hanson and Hanson 1998;Moss 1999;Jackson et al 2001). Also, a consequence of the contrail climate impact is to better inform public policy debates (Williams et al 2003;Fichter et al 2005;Stuber et al 2006).…”

Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

“…Moss, 1999;Walters et al, 2000;Jackson et al, 2001) but these did not address the question of persistence of contrails. Stuefer et al (2005) compared contrail observations over Alaska with uncorrected radiosonde measurements and performed a statistical analysis comparing different forecasts, also addressing the lifetime of contrails.…”