The Thames flood series: a lack of trend in flood magnitude and a decline in maximum levels

Marsh, Terry; Harvey, Catherine L.

doi:10.2166/nh.2012.054

Cited by 39 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Significant trends (both positive and negative) have been detected in a 'considerable fraction' of basins in Germany (Petrow and Merz 2009). There is high year-to-year climate led variation in the UK with no significant long term trends in flood frequency (Robson et al 1998, Macdonald 2006, Marsh and Harvey 2012. There is evidence for a shorter term (40-50 year) trend in the UK (Robson 2002) and significant trends were found in the UK in recent decades (Kjeldsen et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(e.g. Robson et al 1998, Haigh et al 2010, Menéndez and Woodworth 2010, Marsh and Harvey 2012, Murphy et al 2013, Wilby and Quinn, 2013. Anticipated climate change A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t suggests that in many areas of Europe, summers are likely to be drier, but winters may be wetter, with a potential for a greater frequency of fluvial winter floods (Hulme et al 2002, IPCC 2007.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flood events have typically been evaluated using river flow data and the analysis of the frequency of peak flows (Robson et al 1998, Robson 2002, Macdonald 2006, Petrow and Merz 2009, Delgado et al 2010, Kjeldsen et al 2012, Marsh and Harvey 2012. Long flow series are rare, with few records extending over 70 years (Macdonald and Black 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in reported flooding in the UK: 1884–2013

Stevens

Clarke

Nicholls

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Abstract:A long term dataset of reported flooding based on reports from the UK Meteorological Office and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology is described. This is possibly a unique dataset as the authors are unaware of any other 100+ year records of flood events and their consequences on a national scale. Flood events are classified by severity based upon qualitative descriptions. There is an increase in the number of reported flood events over time associated with an increased exposure to flooding as floodplain areas were developed. The data was de-trended for exposure, using population and dwelling house data. The adjusted record shows no trend in reported flooding over time, but there is significant decade to decade variability. This study opens a new approach considering flood occurrence over a long timescale using reported information (and thus likely effects on society) rather than just considering trends in extreme hydrological conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Trends in reported flooding in the UK: 1884–2013

Stevens

Clarke

Nicholls

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…The River Thames provides a revealing example: annual mean gauged flows have reduced considerably over the 128-year record, but (non-returning) abstractions from the Thames have increased by an order of magnitude since the 1880s and, once allowed for, the naturalized series exhibits a significant positive trend (Marsh and Harvey 2012).…”

Section: Guidance On How To Best Use Reference Stations and Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

Whitfield

Burn

Hannaford

et al. 2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Identifying climate-driven trends in river flows on a global basis is hampered by a lack of long, quality time series data for rivers with relatively undisturbed regimes. This is a global problem compounded by the lack of support for essential long-term monitoring. Experience demonstrates that, with clear strategic objectives, and the support of sponsoring organizations, reference hydrologic networks can constitute an exceptionally valuable data source to effectively identify, quantify and interpret hydrological change-the speed and magnitude of which is expected to a be a primary driver of water management and flood alleviation strategies through the future-and for additional applications. Reference hydrologic networks have been developed in many countries in the past few decades. These collections of streamflow gauging stations, that are maintained and operated with the intention of observing how the hydrology of watersheds responds to variations in climate, are described. The status of networks under development is summarized. We suggest a plan of actions to make more effective use of this collection of networks.Key words reference networks; hydrometric data; hydrological change Les réseaux hydrologiques de référence I. Le statut et les orientations futures possibles des réseaux hydrologiques nationaux de référence pour détecter les tendancesRésumé L'identification de tendances induites par le climat dans le débit des rivières est entravée par le manque de longues séries chronologiques de qualité provenant de rivières dont le régime est peu altéré. Ce problème global est aggravé par le manque de soutien aux initiatives de suivi à long terme. L'expérience démontre qu'avec des objectifs stratégiques clairs ainsi qu'avec le soutien d'organismes de parrainage, les réseaux de référence hydrologiques peuvent s'avérer une précieuse source de données pour l'identification, la quantification et l'interprétation des changements hydrologiques. La vitesse et l'ampleur de ces derniers seront probablement à l'avenir des éléments importants pour la gestion de l'eau et la lutte contre les inondations. C'est pourquoi, d'autres applications étant sans doute à prévoir, des réseaux hydrologiques de référence ont été établis dans plusieurs pays au cours des dernières décennies. On décrit ces ensembles de stations de suivi hydrométrique, maintenues et exploitées dans l'intention d'observer comment l'hydrologie des bassins versants répond aux variations climatiques, ainsi que l'état actuel de développement de ces réseaux. Nous suggérons un plan d'action visant une utilisation plus efficace de ces réseaux.Mots clefs réseaux de référence; données hydrométriques; changement hydrologique

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“…Interestingly, their study concluded that there were fewer trends in flood magnitude, as measured by the instantaneous AMS than in more aggregated indicators such as the maximum 10-or 30-day flow. In a detailed study of flood flow and water levels in the river Thames, Marsh and Harvey (2012) found no increase in peak flow over the last decade, and even a decrease in maximum flood levels resulting from increased flood management interventions, thus highlighting the complex interactions between natural and man-made interventions in the flow regime.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%