We conducted a statistical analysis of a long-term record of intra-and interannual temperature fluctuations in Lake Washington, Washington. Lake Washington has experienced a warming trend, with overall increases of 1.5 (0.045ЊC yr Ϫ1 ) and 0.9ЊC (0.026ЊC yr
Ϫ1), respectively, for temperature data weighted over the surface (0-10 m) and entire lake volume. This warming trend was greatest for the period from April to September and was smallest and nonsignificant for November-February. A principal-components analysis of the long-term mean monthly temperature time series identified two independent modes of interannual variability. The first mode represented the months of the year when the lake warms and is warmest (e.g., March-October) and explained 54% of the variability in the overall time series. The second mode represented the months when the lake cools and is coldest (November-February) and explained 24% of the variability. The March-October mode was positively correlated with interannual variability in air temperatures and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), multivariate r 2 ϭ 0.65. The November-February mode was positively correlated with air temperature, PDO, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed (r 2 ϭ 0.83). A heat budget model indicated that long-term trends had a secondary role and interannual variability dominated, with exceptions being net long-wave atmospheric radiation and surface-emitted radiation, for which the long-term trend explained ϳ25% and 53% of the total variance, respectively. An increase in incoming long-wave radiation fluxes was mainly associated with the increase in minimum daily temperatures (0.06ЊC yr Ϫ1 , r 2 ϭ 0.47), especially during the March-October mode, when the linear trend accounted for 85% of the variability.Climatic and large-scale oceanic fluctuations are increasingly recognized as important regulatory factors that are capable of influencing the structural properties of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (Aebischer et al. 1990;Adrian et al. 1995; George and Taylor 1995;Post et al. 1997;Beamish et al. 1999). Generally, the thermal properties of aquatic ecosystems are more directly governed by these broad-scale phenomena than are the thermal properties of terrestrial ecosystems, with lakes appearing to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climatic forcing (Hostetler and Small 1999;Gerten and Adrian 2001). There is clear evidence of a strong relationship between climatic conditions (e.g., air temperature and wind patterns) and lake thermal structure (e.g., onset of stratification, thermocline depth, mean epilimnetic temperature, turnover date, and duration of ice cover) for northern temperate lakes (Schindler et al.