The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve

Bahmani‐Oskooee, Mohsen; Karamelikli, Hüseyin

doi:10.1007/s10644-020-09298-1

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…This is a discovery that has not been reported in the trade literature on Korea yet. Further, this finding is consistent with the outcomes of Bahmani‐Oskooee and Harvey (2018), Bahmani‐Oskooee and Nasir (2020), Bahmani‐Oskooee and Fariditavana (2020) and Bahmani‐Oskooee and Karamelikli (2021). For example, Bahmani‐Oskooee and Nasir (2020) report that the USD asymmetrically affects the U.S. bilateral trade with the UK.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…For example, Bahmani‐Oskooee and Nasir (2020) report that the USD asymmetrically affects the U.S. bilateral trade with the UK. Bahmani‐Oskooee and Karamelikli (2021) reveal that the majority of Turkey's commodities exported to and imported from the U.S. responds asymmetrically as the exchange rate fluctuates. These studies also generally substantiate our discovery that the asymmetries of exchange rates appear to be a short‐run phenomenon.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Korea‐Vietnam trade and the bilateral exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade data

Baek

Yoon

2022

Australian Economic Papers

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The contribution of the current article is to detect the asymmetric impact that exchange rate fluctuations have on Korea's trade with Vietnam. To this end, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) process is applied to export and import data disaggregated by 25 commodities. We uncover that the ups and downs of exchange rates have an asymmetric impact on some, though not all, types of Korea's commodities exported to and imported from Vietnam in both the long-and short-run.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Korea‐Vietnam trade and the bilateral exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade data

Baek

Yoon

2022

Australian Economic Papers

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“…Therefore, there is no such J-Curve effect. Our findings are consistent with the results of Karamelikli (2016), Bahmani-Oskooee & Durmaz (2016), Bahmani-Oskooee & Karamelikli (2020). Some previous studies pointed out that when using data with aggregation bias, the long-run effect is difficult to detect and recommended using Turkish trade flows at the commodity level with each major partner (M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Karamelikli, 2020).…”

Section: Unit Root Testsupporting

confidence: 91%

COVID-19 Döneminde Türkiye Dış Ticaretinin Değerlendirilmesi

Ojaghlou

2023

Fiscaoeconomia

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The value of the Turkish currency decreased by 44% in 2021. The trade balance was directly impacted by exchange rate fluctuation. Moreover, COVID-19 had a significant impact on the trade balance globally as well as in Turkey. In this study, we attempt to assess how COVID-19 has affected trade between Turkey and the EU27 counties. We employ the J-curve and S-curve approaches using various samples and sub-samples. Before examining how COVID-19 influences trade balances, we first looked at the long-term relationship of bilateral trade between Turkey and the EU27, including the impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance. The findings indicate that, first; there is no indication of a J-curve or an S-curve in Turkey’s trade balance. Second, the Turkish trade balance benefited more from a real fall of the Turkish currency during the pandemic era. In comparison to pre-pandemic correlations, the pandemic cross-correlation coefficients are lower. Despite some delays, it turned out well. The Turkish trade balance is improved by the weakening of the Turkish Lira and the effects of COVID-19 during the pandemic, even if there is no indication of a J-curve or an S-curve.

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“…Their results reveal that the Turkish economy does not display a J-curve pattern and the impact of exchange rate on trade balance is insignificant. Bahmani-Oskooee and Karamelikli (2021) examine the Turkey-US commodity trade balance and conclude that the exchange rate has an asymmetric negative short-run impact in 28 out of 45 industries. However, the long-run asymmetric positive impact is detected in 13 industries only.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can exchange rate policies and trade partners' income enhance the trade balance in Algeria? Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model

Alsamara

Mimouni

Barkat

et al. 2022

IJOEM

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PurposeThis paper aims to examine the effects of the real exchange rate on trade balance in Algeria and investigates whether it represents a viable tool to sustain and improve trade performance using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation technique and data from Algeria over the period 1980–2018. This study also highlights the role of trading partners with large income endowments in enhancing the trade balance.Design/methodology/approachThe NARDL model is used to unveil potential short and long run nonlinear responses of the trade balance to shocks in real exchange rates and detect whether these responses are different in terms of sign and magnitude. The paper also provides a dynamic multiplier analysis that tests the existence of a J-Curve pattern in Algeria with several policy recommendations.FindingsThe findings confirm the existence of a J-curve pattern in Algeria where domestic currency depreciation will worsen the trade balance in the short run and improve it in the long run. The authors also find that the asymmetrical effect of real exchange rate on trade balance is different in sign and magnitude. Finally, the results indicate that an increase in trade partners' income increases the trade balance in Algeria. The findings are of utmost importance with several policy implications.Originality/valueWhile some works investigated the nonlinear response of trade balance to real exchange rate movements, their results remain inconclusive and seem to depend on the characteristics of the country/region of study. Moreover, the role of trade partners and their potential impact on trade balance has been relatively overlooked in the literature. The authors fill this gap by examining the asymmetric impacts of real exchange rate and the effect of trade partners' income on trade balance in Algeria.

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The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve

Cited by 5 publications

References 43 publications

The Korea‐Vietnam trade and the bilateral exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade data

The Korea‐Vietnam trade and the bilateral exchange rate: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade data

COVID-19 Döneminde Türkiye Dış Ticaretinin Değerlendirilmesi

Can exchange rate policies and trade partners' income enhance the trade balance in Algeria? Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model

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