The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates

Kay, Alison L.; Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen; Lane, Rosanna; Rudd, Alison

doi:10.5194/essd-2022-439

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 30 publications

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“…Continuous modeling to account for the full changes in the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall as provided by the UKCP Local climate simulations is achieved in this way. By taking an individual ∼30 m DEM pixel as a grid cell (Collischonn et al., 2007; Kay et al., 2022) and ignoring the horizontal fluxes between two surrounding grid cells, hydrologic process (i.e., precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff, etc.) are continuously simulated driven by the UKCP Local daily average rainfall data, and the volumetric water content is calculated using the ratio of current soil water storage to maximum moisture content.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Precipitation Pattern on UK Urban Pluvial Flood Hazards Under Climate Change

Rong,

Bates,

Neal

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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The diversity of flood‐generating mechanisms superimposed on catchment physiographic features with non‐stationary meteorological drivers makes future flood hazard assessment a grand challenge. To date, many studies have examined patterns in rainfall and streamflow, but far fewer have investigated trends in the other drivers of flooding. The complex transfer function between precipitation and flooding makes it potentially misleading to simply look at the change in rainfall to express the hazard. Furthermore, there are very few studies that have directly used output from km‐scale climate models in flood modeling. Coarse resolution climate data sets may not credibly resolve local climate and weather extremes. Changes in rainfall distribution and antecedent moisture over extended time periods due to climate change have so far been ignored when assessing urban pluvial flood risk. In this paper, an urban flood hazard assessment framework using the latest 2.2 km resolution UK Climate Projections Local is proposed. Global warming induced changes in pluvial flood risks under RCP8.5 are projected, focusing on the impact of changing precipitation patterns and soil moisture dynamics on flood generation. Results indicate a strong increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme floods, and the resultant future (2060–2080) annual flood volume is expected to increase up to 52.6% relative to 1980–2000 over a major UK urban region, and these patterns are likely to hold more generally elsewhere in the UK. Shifts to a later occurrence of extreme flooding is identified under global warming. Previous studies that have neglected soil moisture dynamics are unlikely to give accurate flood estimates.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Precipitation Pattern on UK Urban Pluvial Flood Hazards Under Climate Change

Rong,

Bates,

Neal

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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The effects of drought on biodiversity in UK river ecosystems: Drying rivers in a wet country

Stubbington,

England,

Sarremejane

et al. 2024

WIREs Water

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Climate change is interacting with water resource pressures to alter the frequency, severity and spatial extent of drought, which can thus no longer be considered a purely natural hazard. Although particularly severe ecological impacts of drought have occurred in drylands, its effects on temperate ecosystems, including rivers, are also considerable. Extensive research spanning a diverse range of UK rivers offers an opportunity to place the effects of past drought in the context of intensifying climate change and to examine the likely effects of future drought in a typically cool, wet country. Here, drought manifests instream as deficits in surface water, modified flow velocities, and—increasingly—partial or complete drying of previously perennial and naturally non‐perennial reaches. As a result, drought causes declines in the taxonomic and functional biodiversity of freshwater communities including microorganisms, algae, plants, invertebrates and fish, altering ecological processes and associated benefits to people. Although freshwater communities have typically recovered quickly after previous UK droughts, an increase in drought extremity may compromise recovery following future events. The risk of droughts that push ecosystems beyond thresholds to persistent, species‐poor, functionally simplified states is increasing. Research and monitoring are needed to enable timely identification of rivers approaching such thresholds and thus to inform interventions that pull these ecosystems back from the brink. Management actions that support natural flow regimes and promote natural processes that diversify instream habitats, including drought refuges, are also crucial to support biodiversity within functional river ecosystems as they adapt to a changing world.This article is categorized under: Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness

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The enhanced future Flows and Groundwater dataset: development and evaluation of nationally consistent hydrological projections based on UKCP18

Hannaford¹,

Mackay²,

Ascott³

et al. 2023

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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Abstract. This paper details the development and evaluation of the enhanced future FLows and Groundwater (eFLaG) dataset of nationally consistent hydrological projections for the UK, based on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). The projections are derived from a range of hydrological models. For river flows, multiple models (Grid-to-Grid, PDM (Probability Distributed Model) and GR (Génie Rural; both four- and six-parameter versions, GR4J and GR6J)) are used to provide an indication of hydrological model uncertainty. For groundwater, two models are used, a groundwater level model (AquiMod) and a groundwater recharge model (ZOODRM: zooming object-oriented distributed-recharge model). A 12-member ensemble of transient projections of present and future (up to 2080) daily river flows, groundwater levels and groundwater recharge was produced using bias-corrected data from the UKCP18 regional (12 km) climate ensemble. Projections are provided for 200 river catchments, 54 groundwater level boreholes and 558 groundwater bodies, all sampling across the diverse hydrological and geological conditions of the UK. An evaluation was carried out to appraise the quality of hydrological model simulations against observations and also to appraise the reliability of hydrological models driven by the regional climate model (RCM) ensemble in terms of their capacity to reproduce hydrological regimes in the current period. The dataset was originally conceived as a prototype climate service for drought planning for the UK water sector and so has been developed with drought, low river flow and low groundwater level applications as the primary objectives. The evaluation metrics show that river flows and groundwater levels are, for the majority of catchments and boreholes, well simulated across the flow and level regime, meaning that the eFLaG dataset could be applied to a wider range of water resources research and management contexts, pending a full evaluation for the designated purpose. Only a single climate model and one emissions scenario are used, so any applications should ideally contextualise the outcomes with other climate model–scenario combinations. The dataset can be accessed in Hannaford et al. (2022): https://doi.org/10.5285/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9.

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The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates

Cited by 3 publications

References 30 publications

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Precipitation Pattern on UK Urban Pluvial Flood Hazards Under Climate Change

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Precipitation Pattern on UK Urban Pluvial Flood Hazards Under Climate Change

The effects of drought on biodiversity in UK river ecosystems: Drying rivers in a wet country

The enhanced future Flows and Groundwater dataset: development and evaluation of nationally consistent hydrological projections based on UKCP18

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