The usage of neural networks and time series in pattern recognition and forecasting of power consumption profiles

Abstract

Most of the Power Quality disturbances such as unbalances, sags, swells and harmonic distortion are intimately related to power consumption variations. In this manner, with the aim of identifying electrical problems causing PQ disturbances, a suitable knowledge of these power consumption profiles is required. These profiles can be obtained by either a continuous monitoring or by using some tools capable of representing the behavior of the power demand. This paper presents a comparison between two analytical tools, one is an artificial intelligence approach by means of neural networks, and the other one uses statistical techniques such as time series analysis. These techniques not only can represent power consumption profiles, but also may predict them allowing the customer to make a suitable planning of the electrical facilities.