The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

Knol, Anne; Slottje, Pauline; Sluijs, J.P. van der; Lebret, Erik

doi:10.1186/1476-069x-9-19

Cited by 233 publications

(201 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…It is often considered the best way to develop credible estimates when data are sparse or lacking, or when projections are sought for future conditions that are different from past conditions [34][35]. Several formal protocols for conducting elicitations have been developed [36] and a rich literature provides guidance on question design, the importance of clarity in what is being asked, how to minimize the effects of motivational and cognitive biases, and the importance of providing feedback and opportunities to update assessments [33,[37][38]. Expert elicitation has been widely used to support decision making in the private and public sectors.…”

Section: Expert Elicitation Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

et al. 2016

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Section: Expert Elicitation Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

et al. 2016

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“…Using a data extraction tool constructed specifically for this task, based on the elicitation methods literature [4,9,23], the details shown in Table 2 were extracted.…”

Section: -Data Extractionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Availability and willingness to participate, as well as potential conflicts of interest also need to be taken into account [4]. There is little literature on the number of experts to elicit from, but research in other fields [9] suggest that between six and twelve experts should be included in most elicitation exercises.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods to Elicit Probability Distributions from Experts: A Systematic Review of Reported Practice in Health Technology Assessment

et al. 2013

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BACKGROUND: Elicitation is a technique that can be used to obtain probability distribution from experts about unknown quantities. We conducted a methodology review of reports where probability distributions had been elicited from experts to be used in model-based health technology assessments.METHODS: Databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the CRD database were searched from inception to April 2013. Reference lists were checked and citation mapping was also used. Studies describing their approach to the elicitation of probability distributions were included. Data was abstracted on pre-defined aspects of the elicitation technique. Reports were critically appraised on their consideration of the validity, reliability and feasibility of the elicitation exercise.RESULTS: Fourteen articles were included. Across these studies, the most marked features were heterogeneity in elicitation approach and failure to report key aspects of the elicitation method. The most frequently used approaches to elicitation were the histogram technique and the bisection method. Only three papers explicitly considered the validity, reliability and feasibility of the elicitation exercises.CONCLUSION: Judged by the studies identified in the review, reports of expert elicitation are insufficient in detail and this impacts on the perceived usability of expert-elicited probability distributions. In this context, the wider credibility of elicitation will only be improved by better reporting and greater standardisation of approach. Until then, the advantage of eliciting probability distributions from experts may be lost. elicitation, expert opinion, subjective probabilities, health technology assessment, decision-analytic models, uncertainty  The elicitation of probability distributions from experts to enhance the modelling process is an integral part of health technology assessment  The majority of reports presenting expert elicitation of probability distribution were incomplete, making critical appraisal of these exercises difficult.  By disseminating reports of such exercises conducted in health technology assessment, research is encouraged towards building a framework for conducting and evaluating the elicitation of probability distributions.

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“…Increasingly in a variety of natural resource management applications researchers and practitioners are adopting structured approaches for eliciting and using expert knowledge (Kuhnert et al, 2010;Martin et al, 2009). Elicitation of expert judgment is particularly useful where decisions are time-sensitive and management or policy cannot wait for improved scientific knowledge (Knol et al, 2010). (Knol et al, 2010;Kuhnert et al, 2010) Figure 8 presents a structured process for eliciting expert judgment.…”

Section: Fire Effects Analysis and Incorporation Of Expert Judgmentmentioning

confidence: 99%