The Use of Indigenous Knowledge in Predicting Changes in Seasonal Rainfall by Smallholder Farmers of Ruteete Subcounty, Kabarole District

Abstract

Climate change has become a serious global challenge. Developing countries are the worst affected due to poor response mechanism to associated disasters. This study examined the application of the indigenous knowledge (IK) methods to predict the changes in seasonal rainfall. The study used data collected through individual interviews using a structured questionnaire. The study found vegetation changes (i.e. shading off leaves, excessive branching); changes in animal behavior (i.e. eating soil, restlessness), and other atmospheric indicators (i.e. changes in wind, color of stars and moon, earthquake, migrating of birds, swarming of bees, cold windy mornings and warm nights) being used to observe and monitor the changes in rainfall over the season. The study recommends a more detailed study to validate the IK and integrate it with the scientific knowledge so as to reduce local farmers' vulnerability, increase resilience and strengthen their adaptive capacity to cope with climate change effects.

Examining the Impact of Bias Correction on the Prediction Skill of Regional Climate Projections

“…Tiyo et al [1], Okonya et al [2], Ongoma et al [3], among others have generally projected increasing magnitudes and frequency of extreme weather events. Unfortunately, developing countries have lower adaptive capabilities [4] [5] [6] and less developed early warning mechanism [3] [6] which make them vulnerable to the negative impacts associated with these extreme events. The changes in climate have been attributed to increasing pollution levels and changes in environment due to changes in land cover and land use.…”

“…For this reason, Piani et al [13] has recommended this to enable high impact studies for improved vulnerability assessment. Additionally, the changing frequency of extreme weather events requires a detailed assessment to build realistic future occurrences [4] [5] [22].…”

The Barriers to Landslide Responses over the Mt. Elgon in Bududa District, Uganda

“…The occurrence of landslides is also known to trigger food shortage and misery especially the lives lost, and has been recognized as a problem of concerned over Uganda, especially the Mount Elgon region [5,17,22]. Neema et al [4] and Nyakaisiki et al [23], among others, attribute the occurrence Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 2 September 2019 doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0022.v1…”

Analysis of WRF Simulation Skill for Seasonal Rainfall: A Case Study of 2015 September–November Season

“…In Uganda for example, the agricultural sector contributes 26% of the country's Gross Domestic Product [5,8]. As such, variations in the distribution of rainfall amounts both in space and time significantly impacts the agricultural sector and consequently the economy [3,9]. The rainfall variability is often associated with devastating socio-economic impacts resulting in loss of life and property [8]; food insecurity [9]; water shortages [3]; power and communication interruptions [10] among others.…”

“…As such, variations in the distribution of rainfall amounts both in space and time significantly impacts the agricultural sector and consequently the economy [3,9]. The rainfall variability is often associated with devastating socio-economic impacts resulting in loss of life and property [8]; food insecurity [9]; water shortages [3]; power and communication interruptions [10] among others. In Uganda, for example, over a thousand people of Kanamba and Kabaka parishes in Karusandara sub-county (Kasese district) were left homeless after River Mubuku flooded and busted its banks, washing away crops and destroying property worth millions of money [4].…”