The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM): a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

Abstract

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant). Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM). The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc.) and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

Evacuation planning in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand: a spatio-temporal approach for emergency management and transportation network decisions

“…Many studies have attempted to classify evacuations into various types (e.g. Baker 1991, Ketteridge et al 1996, Wolshon et al 2001, Marrero et al 2010 and others have focussed on emergency response activities (e.g. Cova 1999, Cutter 2003, Marzocchi and Woo 2007, Moriarty et al 2007, Shaluf 2008.…”

“…However, contraflow systems are frequently used for evacuations in the U.S. and plans are often well engineered and publicised (Wolshon 2002). Indeed, although studies on hurricane-based evacuations provide valuable information, many differences in characteristics such as risk perception, familiarity and cultural geography, mean that the results cannot be easily extrapolated to other hazards or locations (Marrero et al 2010). Transportation modelling can be used to help with specific planning objectives, and allow the testing of various assumptions and alternatives.…”

“…Flows alone, though useful in visualising movement, cannot predict congestion, because they do not account for the capacity of the road segments. VOC ratios excel at this and are a common measure of assessing movement difficulty (Cova and Church 1997, Church and Cova 2000, Shulman 2008, Marrero et al 2010. VOC ratios examine the volume of traffic on each lane of the road divided by the lane's capacity (similar to Car/EC ratios, except VOC ratios are based on links rather than zones).…”

Outcomes of the Special Issue on Approaches to hazard evaluation, mapping, and mitigation

“…Lastly, Marrero et al (2010) presented the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM), a computer model for the simulation of evacuations of the population prompted by volcanic events. VSEM allows optimizing the evacuation process by considering different strategies and impact scenarios.…”

“…Two of them discuss natural hazards, tsunami (Tselentis et al, 2010) and volcanic activity (Marrero et al, 2010), and one discusses human-induced subsidence caused by mining activity (Akcin et al, 2010). Akcin et al (2010) used consolidated DInSAR techniques and C-Band Radarsat images to measure the surface deformations caused by extensive underground mining activity in the Zonguldak Hardcoal Basin, Turkey.…”