The web of conflict-related interactions in Colombia: exploring causal linkages between ecological and social variables by the qualitative loop analysis

Abstract

In Colombia, the long-lasting internal conflict heavily shaped the socio-ecological context and imposed relationships that persisted after the peace agreement was signed in 2016. One question of interest is whether policies or interventions conceived to attain desirable goals for the post-conflict society may be effective or, rather, if the constraints imposed by the conflict scenario might produce unintended effects, either on the environmental or the social side. To explore this issue, we envisaged the socio-ecological system as a parsimonious set of characteristic ecological and social variables within the conflict-related framework and reconstructed their interactions, exploiting elicitation-based information and the literature. We visualized the resulting interactive networks as signed digraphs. Applying the qualitative technique of loop analysis combined with numerical simulations, we predicted the response of the system to policies as drivers of change, such as subsidized credit to capital-intensive activities or policies that increase small farming competitiveness and access to markets. Highlighting causal linkages reveals that the persistence of conflict factors may produce unexpected interdependencies between licit and illicit activities and that, only in a few cases, the persistence of these mechanisms allows synergies between desirable goals. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions’.

Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions

“…A key question in this framework is how the complex dynamics of multiple interactions determine the response of ecosystems to management and human interventions. This theme issue includes the studies by Kushal & Springborn, Bodini et al , Ortiz & Hermosillo-Núñez and Biswas et al [ 33 , 36 , 60 , 61 ], which explore the intricate relationships between human activities and natural systems, offering insights into sustainable management and policy design.…”

“…Bodini et al . [ 36 ] (P16) use networks to map interactions among social and ecological variables influencing the long-standing armed conflict in Colombia. Applying loop analysis to these networks, they predict the system’s response to various policy interventions, revealing the complexity of achieving synergies and navigating trade-offs between ecological conservation and social development goals.…”

“…Furthermore, increased computing power, collaborations and data sharing, together with the rise of new technologies, is allowing ecologists to analyse the effect of spatial [ 25 , 26 ] and population structure [ 27 – 29 ] and physical variables [ 30 , 31 ] on the structure and dynamics of food webs. More recently, research opening new frontiers in network ecology is analysing how coupled natural-human systems would respond to environmental change, including in fisheries [ 30 , 32 , 33 ], ecosystem services [ 34 , 35 ] and human social conflicts [ 36 ].…”