The welfare state and political trust: bringing performance back in

Kumlin, Staffan; Haugsgjerd, Atle

doi:10.4337/9781782545118.00029

Cited by 97 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…A recent overview find support for this contention in existing research. Subjective assessments and personal experiences of services and benefits, as well as macro variables like income inequality and benefit generosity, are consistently associated with political trust in multivariate models (Kumlin and Haugsgjerd 2017).…”

Section: Welfare State Performance and Political Trustmentioning

confidence: 95%

Downbound spiral? Economic grievances, perceived social protection and political distrust

Haugsgjerd

Kumlin

2019

West European Politics

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Momentous events in Western democracies have brought renewed attention to how various aspects of government-controlled policy outputs and outcomes affect citizens' trust in politics. Unlike most previous research this study uses individual-level panel data to test the link between government performance evaluations and political trust. Moreover, we gauge performance in more policy areas than previous research including key aspects of government-controlled social services as well as a wide range of economic risks. We find that evaluations of government performance affect political trust but that the evidence is stronger for evaluations of social protection than for economic risks. Crucially, our analysis suggests that the relationship between performance evaluations and distrust is reciprocal. The relationship may be described as a "downbound spiral" where dissatisfied groups develop distrust, which in turn makes for a more pessimistic interpretation of economic risks and welfare state performance.

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Section: Welfare State Performance and Political Trustmentioning

confidence: 95%

Downbound spiral? Economic grievances, perceived social protection and political distrust

Haugsgjerd

Kumlin

2019

West European Politics

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“…A notable exception to this is the work by Fernandes et al (forthcoming), who revealed that at the macro-level there was, surprisingly, a negative relationship between social protection spending and trust in representative institutions in Southern Europe between 2000 and 2015. A positive relationship between the citizens' welfare state experiences and political trust (that is, at the microlevel) has been observed elsewhere, however (Kumlin 2002;Kumlin and Haugsgjerd 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…Four main hypotheses will be tested. First, in line with the institutional theories and inspired by the work of Kumlin (2002) and Kumlin and Haugsgjerd (2017), we expect that trust in political institutions will be greater amongst the citizens who assess the performance of the welfare state in a more positive manner (hypothesis 1). Assessments of the welfare state performance and levels of trust in political institutions that ultimately decide how much and how to manage the welfare system are different and fairly independent features.…”

Section: Goals Hypotheses and Datamentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Within the institutional framework, studies focusing on the relationship between welfare state performance and trust in political institutions are, as we noted above, less common (Kumlin 2002;Kumlin and Haugsgjerd 2017;Fernandes et al forthcoming). Our knowledge on the effects of welfare performance on political trust lags behind what we know about the effects of interpersonal trust, and short-term economic and government performance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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In welfare we trust? Political trust in Portugal and Spain, 2008-2014

Sanches¹,

Pereira²,

Razzuoli³

2018

Changing Societies: Legacies and Challenges. Citizenship in Crisis

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“…First, while prior studies focus either on a period of stability or a period of economic turmoil, we are able to examine the evolution of trust in national parliament for a more extended period, namely from 2002 to 2014, by using all seven waves of the European Social Survey (ESS). Examining a longer time span is important considering that contextual effects can have different influence in normal and crisis times (Kumlin and Haugsgjerd, 2017). Second, in the present study, we apply a more dynamic view by focusing on longitudinal (within-) as well as cross-sectional (between-) effects of macroeconomic variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining macroeconomic determinants of trust in parliament: A dynamic multilevel framework

Ruelens

Meuleman

Nicaise

2018

Social Science Research

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The extensive literature on political trust has long suggested a link between macroeconomic conditions and public trust in political institutions. However, empirical evidence regarding this relationship remains ambiguous. Conflicting results appear to be related to differences in research design: while cross-sectional studies tend not to find evidence of a link between macroeconomic variables and trust in political institutions, most longitudinal studies do. In this paper, using recent advances in multilevel methodology, we examine both cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of macroeconomic variables on trust in national parliament within a single dynamic multilevel framework. By analyzing all seven waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2014), we demonstrate that declining macroeconomic performance has a negative within-country effect on trust in national parliament. At the same time, we find limited evidence in support of this association at the between-country level. This discrepancy suggests the presence of confounding factors that are unaccounted for in cross-sectional designs. We therefore argue for the importance of examining within-country effects as they provide a more stringent test of causality.

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The welfare state and political trust: bringing performance back in

Cited by 97 publications

References 55 publications

Downbound spiral? Economic grievances, perceived social protection and political distrust

Downbound spiral? Economic grievances, perceived social protection and political distrust

In welfare we trust? Political trust in Portugal and Spain, 2008-2014

Examining macroeconomic determinants of trust in parliament: A dynamic multilevel framework

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