The yield curve as an electoral bellwether

Spatial Diffusion of Social Policy in China: Spatial Convergence and Neighborhood Interaction of Vocational Education

“…Those provinces act as the bellwethers with the most developed vocational education systems. Those provinces are also those stars whose tendencies and policies in vocational education match in microcosm those of a wider local area so that their policies on vocational education might predict the eventual result in the latter due to the mechanisms of policy diffusion (Berry et al 1996). Tibet, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces are the last three.…”

Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results

“…Interest rate spread Forward-looking voters may use interest rate spreads as a predictor of output changes in advance (Estrella and Hardouvelis 1991;Estrella and Mishkin 1997), i.e., they expect that the larger the interest rate spread, the higher will be future output growth and the lower will be the future probability of a recession. The argument is endorsed by Berry et al (1996), who find evidence that the interest rate spread affects employment, growth and inflation, which in turn directly or indirectly affects voter behavior. Combining forward-looking voters and interest spreads as an indicator of future growth, it follows that the higher the interest rate spread, the higher would be the vote share of the incumbent's party.…”

Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002

“…Há diversos autores que têm apontado para a crescente influência de atores do mercado financeiro internacional nos rumos da política doméstica (Leblang, 1997;Kaufman e Segura-Ubiergo, 2001;Clark e Hallerberg, 2000;Basinger e Hallerberg, 2004). Em decorrência, indicadores de taxa de câmbio, medidas de risco-país e índices de bolsas de valores passam a ganhar destaque na discussão sobre eleições (Gleisner, 1992;Berry, Elliott e Harpham, 1996;Alesina et alii, 1997;Freeman et alii, 2000;Hays et alii, 2000;Bernhard e Leblang, 2001). …”