Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development

Ghosh, Robin; Schilling, Thomas; Wicke, Kai

doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.09.007

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Since the climate impact of aviation highly depends on the amount, species, altitude, and latitude of emissions [63], a future simulation of the ATS requires a suitable geo-spatial model suite of global air traffic to develop relevant quantitative future scenarios until 2050 [64]. This way potential mitigation strategies (as described in Sections 4.3 and 4.4) and revolutionary new concepts (as shown in Section 4.1) can be evaluated satisfyingly with respect to CO 2 and non-CO 2 effects and global aviation climate targets.…”

Section: Air Traffic Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

et al. 2017

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Abstract:The WeCare project (Utilizing Weather information for Climate efficient and eco efficient future aviation), an internal project of the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt, DLR), aimed at finding solutions for reducing the climate impact of aviation based on an improved understanding of the atmospheric impact from aviation by making use of measurements and modeling approaches. WeCare made some important contributions to advance the scientific understanding in the area of atmospheric and air transportation research. We characterize contrail properties, show that the aircraft type significantly influences these properties, and how contrail-cirrus interacts with natural cirrus. Aviation NO x emissions lead to ozone formation and we show that the strength of the ozone enhancement varies, depending on where within a weather pattern NO x is emitted. These results, in combination with results on the effects of aerosol emissions on low cloud properties, give a revised view on the total radiative forcing of aviation. The assessment of a fleet of strut-braced wing aircraft with an open rotor is investigated and reveals the potential to significantly reduce the climate impact. Intermediate stop operations have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption. However, we find that, if only optimized for fuel use, they will have an increased climate impact, since non-CO 2 effects compensate the reduced warming from CO 2 savings. Avoiding climate sensitive regions has a large potential in reducing climate impact at relatively low costs. Taking advantage of a full 3D optimization has a much better eco-efficiency than lateral re-routings, only. The implementation of such operational measures requires many more considerations. Non-CO 2 aviation effects are not considered in international agreements. We showed that climate-optimal routing could be achieved, if market-based measures were in place, which include these non-CO 2 effects. An alternative measure to foster climate-optimal routing is the closing of air spaces, which are very climate-sensitive. Although less effective than an unconstrained optimization with respect to climate, it still has a significant potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation. By combining atmospheric and air transportation research, we assess climate mitigation measures, aiming at providing information to aviation stakeholders and policy-makers to make aviation more climate compatible.

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Section: Air Traffic Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

et al. 2017

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“…Furthermore, the generic approach allows evaluating the impacts of operational changes like flying slower or the introduction of new technologies up to the launch of a new aircraft programs on stakeholders forming the core ATS. [4] We introduce the 4-layer philosophy for a generic build-up of the passenger air traffic system of the future. The four layers (see Figure 1) consist of (1) the origin-destination (OD) demand network, (2) the routes network, (3) the aircraft movements (ACM) network, and (4) the trajectories network.…”

Section: -Layer Philosophymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This will allow assessing the growth of the ATS against efficiency and technology improvements dynamically until 2050 on a network and fleet basis. The theoretical background of quantitative scenarios in the context of systems analysis concerning the ATS can be found in [4].…”

Section: -Layer Philosophymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Average airfare distributions over GCD between city pairs have been calculated and estimated with analytical functions. The parameters of these functions throughout the available time series are then correlated with the oil price as an external scenario factor [4]. Functions and correlations are used to estimate future airfares on city pairs as a function of GCD and the projected oil price at a given point of time based on the assumed scenario in a conceptual manner.…”

Section: Trend Analysis Of Airfare and Simplified Airfare Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Passenger Air Traffic Modelling: Trend Analysis of the Passenger Air Travel Demand Network

Ghosh

Terekhov

2015

53rd AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting

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“…In addition, feedbacks of alterations of the supply side of the ATS on the estimation on realized demand are incorporated in the ATS modelling concept. The overall theoretical framework of systems design, consisting of a systems analysis and a concept design part, with an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development has been published in [10].…”

Section: Introduction: Generic Build-up Of the Future Atsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future passenger air traffic modelling: a theoretical concept to integrate quality of travel, cost of travel and capacity constraints

Ghosh¹,

Kölker²,

Terekhov³

et al. 2017

IJAM

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In order to model possible future evolutions of the global air transportation system (ATS), not only the assumptions on external socioeconomic conditions are relevant to estimate the future realized air passenger demand on city pair level. The internal scenario concerning the air transportation system (ATS), i.e. how the ATS is changing over time with the introduction of new technologies or new operational concepts has a non-neglectable feedback on realized demand. Also, the effect of infrastructural changes concerning airport and airspace capacities have to be considered. That means, the forecast of realized demand and thus realized air traffic depends equally on the supply offered by the air transportation system. There are three essential kinds of feedback on realized air passenger demand and air traffic, the supply provided by the ATS may have. We present a theoretical concept to integrate these three kinds of feedback (1) quality of travel, (2) cost of travel, and (3) constraints of the supply side of the air transportation system on modelling global future scheduled air traffic. The 4-layers approach of modelling future evolutions of the ATS is a basic prerequisite to model these feedbacks, especially the consistent derivation of an aircraft movements network with information on aircraft generations.

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Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development

Cited by 7 publications

References 15 publications

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

Mitigating the Climate Impact from Aviation: Achievements and Results of the DLR WeCare Project

Future Passenger Air Traffic Modelling: Trend Analysis of the Passenger Air Travel Demand Network

Future passenger air traffic modelling: a theoretical concept to integrate quality of travel, cost of travel and capacity constraints

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