Theories in Search of a Curve: A Contextual Interpretation of Left Vote

Abstract

This article contends that the voting behavior of individuals depends not only upon their own traits but also upon the social context within which it takes place. Left voting depends upon the extent of class consciousness of the workers, where class consciousness is defined as the marginal rate of change of left voting when social structure changes. Marxist theory does not predict that workers will always vote for left parties but only that they will do so when the class is politically organized. According to this theory, the behavior of individuals depends upon the characteristics of the class and not vice versa. Several models can be constructed on the basis of these hypotheses. The choice of the proper function relating the variables is crucial for theory construction. This choice must be theoretically determined, i.e., it must follow from the premises of the theory. However, several theories may equally well explain the reality and the choice on the basis of empirical criteria is not always possible.

Desigualdade e informação política: as eleições brasileiras de 2002

“…Voto de classe, definido pela renda, é uma variável explicativa bastante tradicional nos modelos de votação das eleições latino-americanas (Przeworksi e Soares, 1971;Reis e Barboza Filho, 1978;Lamounier, 1975;1978;1980;Cew, 1978;Singer, 1999;Carreirão e Barbetta, 2004 A primeira hipótese é testada dentro de um modelo mais amplo de aquisição de informação. O modelo leva em consideração que a informação é obtida em conseqüência da conjunção de oportunidade, motivação e capacidade (Luskin, Fiskin e Jowell, 2002 …”

Looking Backward: Stability and Volatility in the British Electorate: 1945-1974

“…The reformulation begins by asking: What is the central argument posed by the research in question? The model may be correctly specified to include contextual effects by introducing non-linear assumptions (Przeworski and Soares 1971). If only the former is present, the correlation between the areal measures will be higher than between the individual measures, but the regression coefficients (the intercept and the slope) will not be affected and aggregate data can be used to estimate individual relations.…”

The Study of Structural Effects in Human Geography

“…Structural effects may therefore arise out of group composition, as a result of intra-group interaction, or perhaps as a result of the type of community or the community context within which an individual is located. In the sociological and political science literature, therefore, the terms compositional and contextual effects have been used interchangeably with the term structural effects (Przeworski & Soares 1971). From a geographic viewpoint, the study of structural effects can be approached in at least two ways.…”