Threshold-based evolutionary magnitude estimation for an earthquake early warning system in the Sichuan–Yunnan region, China

Abstract

The Sichuan–Yunnan region is one of the most seismically vulnerable areas in China. Accordingly, an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the region is essential to reduce future earthquake hazards. This research analyses the utility of two early warning parameters (τc and Pd) for magnitude estimation using 273 events that occurred in the Sichuan–Yunnan region during 2007–2015. We find that τc can more reliably predict high-magnitude events during a short P-wave time window (PTW) but produces greater uncertainty in the low-magnitude range, whereas Pd is highly correlated with the event magnitude depending on the selection of an appropriate PTW. Here, we propose a threshold-based evolutionary magnitude estimation method based on a specific combination of τc and Pd that both offers more robust advance magnitude estimates for large earthquakes and ensures the estimation accuracy for low-magnitude events. The advantages of the proposed approach are validated using data from 2016–2017 and the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in an offline simulation. The proposed concept provides a useful basis for the future implementation of an EEW system in the Sichuan–Yunnan region.

Forest fire prediction using IoT and deep learning

“…The aforementioned information along with measurements of the duration period amongst consecutive large earthquakes, measuring magnitudes exceeding a certain user-defined value of MS ≥ 6.0 [51,52], as the required output, form the training dataset applied to the deep-learning neural network via a parallel processing training algorithm, as was discussed in section 2. The duration intervals inbetween the last and the immediate upcoming strong earthquake are the dependent variable forming the deep learning neural network's required output.…”

“Saving Precious Seconds”—A Novel Approach to Implementing a Low-Cost Earthquake Early Warning System with Node-Level Detection and Alert Generation

“…Unique to any of the previously conducted EEW research across the globe, the research presented in this paper introduces a comprehensive sensor network architecture from scratch, with the specifications of the essential components needed to construct a low-cost, MEMS-based EEW system. Mostly, the previously published literature on EEW systems primarily focused only on discussions of system latency and the accuracy of the network architecture [8,11,41]. In contrast, this paper has investigated all the components and steps required to implement an EEW system and compared them with the existing approaches.…”

“…Ongoing technological innovations in earthquake-monitoring tools, telecommunication, earthquake-detection algorithms, and processing capabilities have created new opportunities to develop EEW systems and provide opportunities for further enhancements [7]. At present, EEW systems are operational in several countries and territories worldwide [8]. Although these systems are robust, implementing them can be complex and expensive.…”

Earthquake Early Warning Systems as an Asset Risk Management Tool

“…Moreover, statistics suggest that 75% of businesses without a business continuity plan will fail within three years after a disaster. stand-alone systems that use the first P-waves motion to project the detection site's ground motion [20].…”