Throwing the Rascals Out: Policy and Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates, 1952–1980

Abstract

This article explores two dimensions of public evaluations of presidential candidates on the basis open-ended survey questions from 1952 to 1980. The first dimension looks at whether citizens evaluate candidates on the basis of policies, performance, or strictly candidate attributes; the second examines the time perspective of these assessments, that is, whether they are retrospective or prospective. It is found that incumbents have been judged primarily on the basis of retrospective performance, challengers on prospective policy, and candidates running in nonincumbent races on prospective performance. Throughout the period from 1952 to 1980 both policy and performance considerations have become increasingly related to the vote. Except for 1964, performance has outweighed policy as a predictor of the vote, with an emphasis on retrospective evaluations whenever a incumbent runs for reelection and on prospective assessments in nonincumbent races. The 1964 case provides the best example of a policy mandate, with the 1972 election also fitting the pattern to a lesser degree. The data for the 1980 election, however, fail to support the claim of a mandate for Reagan's policy stands.

A Policy‐Oriented Electorate: Evaluations of Candidates and Parties in the Obama Elections Compared to the 1952‐1980 Period

“…The most notable exception is Philip Converse's famous coding of levels of conceptualization in 1956, which was published in The American Voter, and later replicated for some subsequent elections by Pierce and Hagner (1982), Knight (1985), and Lewis-Beck et al (2008). Another example is Miller and Wattenberg's (1985) article in the American Political Science Review entitled "Throwing the Rascals Out: Policy and Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates, 1952Candidates, -1980," which this article replicates for the first time.…”

“…In order to test our hypothesis that more Americans are now evaluating candidates and parties in policy terms, we decided to replicate the Miller and Wattenberg (1985) coding scheme for analyzing the open-ended questions from the ANES. An excellent way to directly ascertain the nature of the messages people send on Election Day is simply to ask a representative sample of citizens what was on their minds as they evaluated the candidates and parties.…”

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In a replication of Miller and Wattenberg's (1985) coding of American National Election Studies open-ended likes/dislikes questions, respondents' evaluations of candidates and parties are found to be especially policy oriented in 2008 and 2012. Compared to earlier elections without an incumbent, prospective policy evaluations were far more prevalent in 2008.

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“…This article replicates Miller and Wattenberg's (1985) framework for analyzing what Americans said about the candidates and parties, using the transcripts from the 2008 and 2012 American National Election Studies (ANES). 1 We revisit the question of how voters frame their discussion of candidates and parties employing data from the Obama era.…”

Retrospective Voting in Presidential Primaries

“…Several studies of presidential elections have confirmed Key's hy pothesis (Abramson, Aldrich, & Rohde 1982, 1986, 1990Fiorina 1981;Miller & Wattenberg 1985), but it has not been tested in presidential pri maries. The purpose of this study is to determine whether retrospective voting occurs in presidential primaries.…”