Ties to the Rest: Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival

Abstract

Abstract:The relationship between international linkages and the nature and survival of political regimes has gained increasing attention in recent years, but remains one that is poorly understood. In this article, we make three central contributions to our understanding of international linkage politics and autocratic regime survival. First, we introduce and develop the concept of 'autocratic linkage', and highlight its importance for understanding the international politics of autocratic survival. Second, we use event history analysis to demonstrate that autocratic linkage has a systematic effect on the duration of authoritarian regimes. Finally, we complement our quantitative analysis with a focused comparison of autocratic linkage politics in the Middle East. We show that variation in Saudi Arabian support for autocratic incumbents in the wake of the Arab Spring protests can be explained in significant part by variation in linkage relationships.

Regional autocratic linkage and regime survival

“…This auxiliary finding sheds new light on our previous work (Tansey et al. ) which asserted an autocracy‐sustaining effect of global autocratic linkages. Apparently, much of this effect of worldwide autocratic linkages must be attributed to the strong influences of regional linkage.…”

“…In recent research, Tansey et al. () have also shown that there are important differences between linkages between democracies and those between autocracies, and have demonstrated that autocratic linkages contribute to more durable autocratic regimes.…”

“…Rather, variation in its response can be accounted for in significant part by the channels of linkage Saudi Arabia shared with its autocratic neighbours: it intervened most robustly to support sitting incumbents in regimes with which it was most closely linked (Tansey et al. ).…”

“…Recent scholarship has also shown how linkage to non‐Western powers can reinforce autocratic rule at the expense of democratic movements (Sasse ; Tolstrup ; Vanderhill ) and that ties between authoritarian regimes reduce the likelihood of autocratic breakdown (Tansey et al. ). To date, however, scholars have yet to examine systematically the effects of autocratic linkage on a regional level.…”

How Turkey’s democratic backsliding compromises the international dimension of democratization

“…5.5.Please see Tansey et al. (2017) for a detailed discussion of the role of ties to major authoritarian powers in bolstering autocratic incumbents.…”