Time-Dependent Event-tree Method For Fire Risk Analysis: Tentative Results

Korhonen, Timo; Hietaniemi, Jukka; Baroudi, Djebar; Kokkala,

doi:10.3801/iafss.fss.7-321

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…State is chosen according to fire scenarios obtained by event tree analysis. ( 11 ) Since all the influencing events are not operational in Scenario 10, it can be considered as the initial state, which resembles the condition of fire not breaking out. The relationship between fire scenarios and states are shown in Fig.…”

Section: Stochastic Analysis On Occurrence Probability Of Every Fimentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Assessment of Building Fire Risk to Life Safety

Chu

Sun

2008

Risk Analysis

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This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

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Section: Stochastic Analysis On Occurrence Probability Of Every Fimentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Assessment of Building Fire Risk to Life Safety

Chu

Sun

2008

Risk Analysis

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“…In reality, such development is extremely rare because generally, the fire is perceived and the fire services are alarmed to extinguishing the fire, which must be taken into account to get a realistic picture of the fire development. This can be done by using the Time-Dependent Event-Tree (TDET) method developed by VTT [1,2], which differs from the conventional event-tree modeling in the important point that the TDET method takes explicitly into account the time dependence of the incident, while conventional event-trees only reflect the temporal development via the inherent causality of their structure. Explicit inclusion of the time development is very important, because the branching probabilities of the event trees depend strongly on time, e.g., the fire brigade extinguishing probability is strongly dependent on the size of the fire at the moment when the extinguishing attempts are started.…”

Section: The Time-dependent-event Tree Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Focus of the analysis is in risks to life. The risk analysis approach used takes into account the influence of fire brigade extinguishing actions through application of the Time-Dependent Event Tree method developed by VTT [1,2]. The simulations on the fire development are carried out using the Probabilistic Fire Simulator tool of VTT enabling to carry out Monte Carlo simulations with various fire models ranging from analytical models to CFD models [3,4,5,6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-based Attestation Of Fire Safety Of Wooden Fa~adesin Concrete-framed Residential Multistory Buildings

Hietaniemi¹,

Korhonen²

2005

Fire Safety Science - Proceedings of the Eigth International Sy

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This study presents a fire risk analysis on the impact on fire safety of installation of a wooden façade to a suburb residential multistory building belonging to the fire class P1 defined in the National Building Code of Finland, which in practice means a concreteframed building. The risk analysis and the associated fire simulations are made using state-of-the-art techniques in the fire safety sciences and technology. The results of the study reveal that with respect to the overall fire safety of the concrete-framed residential multistory buildings, the role of the combustible wood as the façade material is insignificant: as is inevitable, the calculations bring out a small increment in the probabilities of fire spread from the room-of-fire-origin to the apartments above, but this increment is small as compared to the influence of several other factors which are not regulated by the Fire Regulations. In particular, the relatively small amount of wood on the façade that is likely to contribute to the external flaming would cause a much higher risk if it was installed as a lining inside the apartment-of-fire-origin. It is shown that the results obtained for the selected example building can be generalized to other buildings with reasonably similar characteristics.

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Time-Dependent Event-tree Method For Fire Risk Analysis: Tentative Results

Cited by 2 publications

References 4 publications

Quantitative Assessment of Building Fire Risk to Life Safety

Quantitative Assessment of Building Fire Risk to Life Safety

Risk-based Attestation Of Fire Safety Of Wooden Fa~adesin Concrete-framed Residential Multistory Buildings

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