Time Series Analysis of Admission in the Accident and Emergency Unit of University College Hospital, Ibadan, Southwestern Nigeria

Abstract

Mortality resulting from accidents and late admission of patients into modern health facility constitute a high proportion of all deaths in the developing countries. Information on patterns of admission of Accident and Emergency (AE) patients is valuable to caregivers in AE department in meeting patients' seasonal needs. This retrospective study used gender-classified records of 79990 patients admitted into the AE unit between 1995 and 2006 in University College Hospital (UCH), Ibadan. We examined seasonal variation using trigonometric regression and moving average models. There exists significant difference in number of admission between males ( � = 306.63, = 69.56) and females ( � = 248.85, = 65.27).The analysis further showed that patient's admission peaked in May and minimal in November. Seasonal index showed that the peak of number of patients admitted was observed in the last quarter of every year. This is an indication that admission occurs mostly during the festive periods where people travel home to celebrate with their love ones. The projected quarterly admissions for 2011 are (Q1=1488, Q2=1497, Q3=1632, Q4=1634) and for 2012 are (Q1=1490, Q2=1499, Q3=1634, Q4=1635). The hospital management should engage more caregivers and make available more resuscitating medical equipments during last quarter of each year and peak periods.