Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic

Xavier, Carolina Ribeiro; Oliveira, Rafael Sachetto; Vieira, Vinícius da Fonseca; Rocha, Bernardo Martins; Reis, Ruy Freitas; Quintela, Bárbara de Melo; Lobosco, Marcelo; Santos, Rodrigo Weber dos

doi:10.1016/j.jocs.2022.101660

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In [36], the use of a simple mathematical model was proposed, based on the classical SIRD model to adjust and predict the COVID-19 pandemics behaviour in three countries: Brazil, Italy, and Korea, which are examples of very different scenarios and stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model used in this work is also based on the classic compartmental SIRD model and extends the models proposed in [37][38][39].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterisation of Omicron Variant during COVID-19 Pandemic and the Impact of Vaccination, Transmission Rate, Mortality, and Reinfection in South Africa, Germany, and Brazil

Xavier

Oliveira

Vieira

et al. 2022

BioTech

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Several variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified in different parts of the world, including Gamma, detected in Brazil, Delta, detected in India, and the recent Omicron variant, detected in South Africa. The emergence of a new variant is a cause of great concern. This work considers an extended version of an SIRD model capable of incorporating the effects of vaccination, time-dependent transmissibility rates, mortality, and even potential reinfections during the pandemic. We use this model to characterise the Omicron wave in Brazil, South Africa, and Germany. During Omicron, the transmissibility increased by five for Brazil and Germany and eight for South Africa, whereas the estimated mortality was reduced by three-fold. We estimated that the reported cases accounted for less than 25% of the actual cases during Omicron. The mortality among the nonvaccinated population in these countries is, on average, three to four times higher than the mortality among the fully vaccinated. Finally, we could only reproduce the observed dynamics after introducing a new parameter that accounts for the percentage of the population that can be reinfected. Reinfection was as high as 40% in South Africa, which has only 29% of its population fully vaccinated and as low as 13% in Brazil, which has over 70% and 80% of its population fully vaccinated and with at least one dose, respectively. The calibrated models were able to estimate essential features of the complex virus and vaccination dynamics and stand as valuable tools for quantifying the impact of protocols and decisions in different populations.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterisation of Omicron Variant during COVID-19 Pandemic and the Impact of Vaccination, Transmission Rate, Mortality, and Reinfection in South Africa, Germany, and Brazil

Xavier

Oliveira

Vieira

et al. 2022

BioTech

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Many mathematical and computational models have been adapted to describe the epidemiological behavior of COVID-19 spread, including predicting the dynamics to assist efforts to counter rapid dissemination of the disease (3)(4)(5). Different modeling strategies to describe the pandemic include stochastic/probabilistic (3,(6)(7)(8)(9), and chaotic (10,11), with many models using ODEs (Ordinary Differential Equations) adapting the compartmental SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) model (5,(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17). Many studies of COVID dynamics have been at national level, but spatially disaggregated approaches (e.g.…”

Section: Epidemiological Considerations In Covid-19 Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Editorial: Epidemiological considerations in COVID-19 forecasting

Reis

Congdon

2023

Front. Epidemiol.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“… 12 A single-model study evaluated impacts of school-aged children vaccination in the U.K. 13 Several other modeling studies have considered vaccination effects in the global context. 14 , 15 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study

Borchering

Mullany

Howerton

et al. 2023

The Lancet Regional Health - Americas

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic

Cited by 14 publications

References 36 publications

Characterisation of Omicron Variant during COVID-19 Pandemic and the Impact of Vaccination, Transmission Rate, Mortality, and Reinfection in South Africa, Germany, and Brazil

Characterisation of Omicron Variant during COVID-19 Pandemic and the Impact of Vaccination, Transmission Rate, Mortality, and Reinfection in South Africa, Germany, and Brazil

Editorial: Epidemiological considerations in COVID-19 forecasting

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About