TM5-FASST: a global atmospheric source–receptor  model for rapid impact analysis of emission changes  on air quality and short-lived climate pollutants

Dingenen, Rita Van; Dentener, Frank; Crippa, Monica; Leitão, Joana; Marmer, Elina; Rao, Shilpa; Solazzo, Efisio; Valentini, Laura

doi:10.5194/acp-18-16173-2018

Cited by 97 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…In addition to the climate impacts, reducing BC emissions also has positive effects on human health. Using the model TM5-FASST (Huijnen et al, 2010;Van Dingenen et al, 2018) we found that globally 329000 and 402000 premature deaths could be prevented by 2030 and 2050, respectively, if the proposed emission reductions (Stohl et al, 2015;Klimont et al, 2017) would https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-864 Preprint. Discussion started: 7 October 2019 c Author(s) 2019.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) is calculated online by performing the radiation calculations twice, once with and once without accounting for aerosol-radiation interaction. The aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is then again with the chemical transport model TM5 (Huijnen et al, 2010), which accounts for the effects of meteorology and chemical and physical processes on the transport of particulate matter (PM) (Van Dingenen et al, 2018). The source-receptor relationships…”

Section: Climate Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of Black Carbon Mitigation on Arctic Climate

Kühn¹,

Kupiainen²,

Miinalainen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. We use the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to assess the effects of black carbon (BC) mitigation measures on Arctic climate. To this end we constructed several mitigation scenarios that implement all currently existing legislation and then implement further reductions of BC in a successively increasing global area, starting from the eight member states of the Arctic Council, expanding to its active observer states, then to all observer states, and finally to the entire globe. These scenarios also account for the reduction of the co-emitted organic carbon (OC) and sulphate (SU). We find that, even though the additional BC emission reductions in the member states of the Arctic Council are small, the resulting reductions in Arctic BC mass burdens can be substantial, especially in the lower atmosphere close to the surface. This in turn means that reducing BC emissions only in the Arctic Council member states can reduce BC deposition in the Arctic by about 30&#8201;% compared to the current legislation, which is about 60&#8201;% of what could be achieved if emissions were reduced globally. Emission reductions further south affect Arctic BC concentrations at higher altitudes and thus only have small additional effects on BC deposition in the Arctic. The direct radiative forcing scales fairly well with the total amount of BC emission reduction, independent of the location of the emission source, with a maximum direct radiative forcing in the Arctic of about 0.4&#8201;W/m2 for a global BC emission reduction. On the other hand, the Arctic effective radiative forcing due to the BC emission reductions, which accounts for aerosol-cloud interactions, is small compared to the direct aerosol radiative forcing. This happens because BC and OC containing particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei, which affects cloud reflectivity and lifetime, and counter-acts the direct radiative forcing of BC. Additionally the effective radiative forcing is accompanied by very large uncertainties that origin from the strong natural variability of meteorology, cloud cover, and surface albedo in the Arctic. We further used the model TM5-FASST to assess the benefits of the aerosol emission reductions on human health. We found that a full implementation in all Arctic Council member and observer states could reduce the annual global amount of premature deaths by 339&#8201;000 by 2030.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Black Carbon Mitigation on Arctic Climate

Kühn¹,

Kupiainen²,

Miinalainen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…To compute pollutant concentrations from pollutant emission scenarios, we use the TM5-FASST model 77 , a reduced-form air quality assessment tool, built on pairwise emission–concentration sensitivities (so-called source–receptor coefficients (SRCs)) between 56 source regions and individual 1°×1° receptor grid cells for each relevant emitted pollutant or precursor.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, chemical processes leading to secondary pollutants involving multiple precursors are non-linear and the embedded linearisation in TM5-FASST may lead to biased estimates of PM 2.5 concentrations and ozone mixing ratios. However, validation studies 77 have shown that the linearity assumption in TM5-FASST holds sufficiently well for regionally averaged (population-weighted) PM 2.5 and ozone responses to precursor emission changes that deviate from −80% to +100% from the reference emissions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air quality co-benefits for human health and agriculture counterbalance costs to meet Paris Agreement pledges

et al. 2018

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Local air quality co-benefits can provide complementary support for ambitious climate action and can enable progress on related Sustainable Development Goals. Here we show that the transformation of the energy system implied by the emission reduction pledges brought forward in the context of the Paris Agreement on climate change (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) substantially reduces local air pollution across the globe. The NDCs could avoid between 71 and 99 thousand premature deaths annually in 2030 compared to a reference case, depending on the stringency of direct air pollution controls. A more ambitious 2 °C-compatible pathway raises the number of avoided premature deaths from air pollution to 178–346 thousand annually in 2030, and up to 0.7–1.5 million in the year 2050. Air quality co-benefits on morbidity, mortality, and agriculture could globally offset the costs of climate policy. An integrated policy perspective is needed to maximise benefits for climate and health.

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“…We employ the global linearized atmospheric chemistry transport model TM5-FASST (Van Dingenen et al 2018). It is derived through perturbation runs from the full chemical transport model TM5.…”

Section: Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air quality co-benefits of ratcheting up the NDCs

et al. 2020

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The current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 • C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today's 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution-related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution-induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 • compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 • C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a "no-regret option" in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 • C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits.

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TM5-FASST: a global atmospheric source–receptor model for rapid impact analysis of emission changes on air quality and short-lived climate pollutants

Cited by 97 publications

References 91 publications

Effects of Black Carbon Mitigation on Arctic Climate

Effects of Black Carbon Mitigation on Arctic Climate

Air quality co-benefits for human health and agriculture counterbalance costs to meet Paris Agreement pledges

Air quality co-benefits of ratcheting up the NDCs

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