To isolate or not to isolate: The impact of changing behavior on COVID-19 transmission

Agusto, Folashade B.; Erovenko, Igor V.; Fulk, Alexander; Abu-Saymeh, Qays; Romero-Álvarez, Daniel; Ponce, Joan; Sindi, Suzanne; Ortega, Omayra; Onge, Jarron M. Saint; Peterson, A. Townsend

doi:10.1101/2020.08.30.20184804

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…A few of the model's initial parameters were sourced from the literature, while others were predicated on well acknowledged facts concerning Covid-19 in Nigeria [8,[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. Using data on Covid-19 incidence in Nigeria from 28 February 2020 to 1 March 2021 prior to immunization, nine factors were estimated.…”

Section: Parameter Values and Data Fittingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

Oyamakin S. O.,

Popoola J. I.

2023

AJPAS

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In reaction to the severe socio-economic effects and upheavals that the Covid-19 sickness had on the world within the first few weeks of its introduction, everyone involved had to act quickly to look for possible solutions for preventing the ensuing epidemics. A prompt response is more critical given Nigeria's subpar social, economic, and healthcare infrastructure. Investigated was the efficacy of various pharmacological, non-pharmaceutical, or a combination of both therapies in flattening the Covid-19 incidence curve. In order to investigate the impact of these interventions, a deterministic SVEIHR model was created and applied. The Nigerian Center for Disease Control (NCDC) portal's Covid-19 data were used to parametrize the model. For simulations using a system dynamic simulation, estimated parameters were employed. The fundamental reproduction number, R0, was used to evaluate the success of our suggested intervention in effectively managing COVID-19 transmission. The simulation results demonstrated that the use of only non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the use of face masks, a light lockdown, and hand washing at baseline or high levels, is insufficient, with the R0 varying from vaccination at the vaccination rate of 0.5% with non-pharmaceutical interventions at any level of compliance, and a combination of vaccination at 0.05% and high hygiene level were effective in flattening the Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, returning a R0 less than 1. Furthermore, maintaining a high level of cleanliness, which includes hand washing and the use of a face mask, would be sufficient to stop the spread of Covid-19 disease and eventually flatten Covid-19 disease incidence curve in Nigeria, given a low turnout of 0.05% for vaccination and the easing of lockdown.

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Section: Parameter Values and Data Fittingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

Oyamakin S. O.,

Popoola J. I.

2023

AJPAS

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“…One factor, however, that has shown to be decisive in the success or failure of a given containment or mitigation strategy and that has show remarkable difficulty to control or project is human behavior. Recently, some efforts in modeling this topic have been reported [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 epidemic scenarios into 2021 based on observed key superspreading events

Santana-Cibrian

Cer

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Key high transmission dates for the year 2020 are used to create scenarios to model the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several states of Mexico for 2021. These scenarios are obtained through the estimation of a time-dependent contact rate, where the main assumption is that the dynamic of the disease is heavily determined by the mobility and social activity of the population during holidays and other important calendar dates. First, changes in the effective contact rate on predetermined dates of 2020 are estimated. Then, using the instantaneous reproduction number to characterize the status of the epidemic (Rt ≈ 1, Rt > 1 or Rt < 1), this information is used to propose different scenarios for the number of cases and deaths for 2021. The main assumption is that the effective contact rate during 2021 will maintain a similar trend to that observed during 2020 on key calendar dates. All other conditions are assumed to remain constant in the time scale of the projections. The objective is to generate a range of scenarios that could be useful to evaluate the possible evolution of the epidemic and its likely impact on incidence and mortality.

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“…Even more, recent studies highlight how host behavior during a pandemic59 and the importance of urbanization60 can also influence disease dynamics. It is possible that the SEIR-W model captures various unknown features of epidemic dynamics, rooted in environmental transmission, or some other yet undiscovered mechanism.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in microparasite free-living survival and indirect transmission can modulate the intensity of emerging outbreaks

Ogbunugafor

Miller-Dickson

Meszaros

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Variation in free-living microparasite survival can have a meaningful impact on the ecological dynamics of established and emerging infectious diseases. Nevertheless, resolving the importance of indirect and environmental transmission in the ecology of epidemics remains a persistent challenge. It requires accurately measuring the free-living survival of pathogens across reservoirs of various kinds and quantifying the extent to which interaction between hosts and reservoirs generates new infections. These questions are especially salient for emerging pathogens, where sparse and noisy data can obfuscate the relative contribution of different infection routes. In this study, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model that permits both direct (host-to-host) and indirect (environmental) transmission and then fit this model to empirical data from 17 countries affected by an emerging virus (SARS-CoV-2). From an ecological perspective, our model highlights the potential for environmental transmission to drive complex, nonlinear dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Summarizing, we propose that fitting alternative models with indirect transmission to real outbreak data from SARS-CoV-2 can be useful, as it highlights that indirect mechanisms may play an underappreciated role in the dynamics of infectious diseases, with implications for public health.

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To isolate or not to isolate: The impact of changing behavior on COVID-19 transmission

Cited by 5 publications

References 16 publications

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

A Susceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Hospitalized and Removed/Recovered (SVEIHR) Model Framework for COVID-19

COVID-19 epidemic scenarios into 2021 based on observed key superspreading events

Variation in microparasite free-living survival and indirect transmission can modulate the intensity of emerging outbreaks

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