In China, the current household contract responsibility system has been unable to adapt to the commercialization and marketization of rural cultivated land. Rural land transfer is allowed by the government as a supplement to the household contract responsibility system. However, in 2016, the rural land circulating in China accounted for only 35% of the total national rural land area and there were many problems with the process of land circulation. Therefore, the rural revitalization strategy in China must focus on how to promote rural land circulation with high efficiency to ensure food security in China and high quality to realize the sustainable development of rural land resources. In this study, based on the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), two structural equation models (SEM) for rural land inflow and rural land outflow were used to compare and examine the key factors affecting farmers’ intention to engage in rural land circulation in Shandong Province. Data analysed from a survey of 549 farmers showed that behavioural attitudes, subjective norms, and perceptual behavioural control have a significant impact on farmers’ intention to engage in rural land circulation, and only subjective norms had a negative impact on the land inflow intention model. Behavioural attitudes had the greatest impact in the two models, but the impact paths of the two models were different. In the rural land inflow intention model, the intrinsic value of cultivated land is important to farmers, whereas in the rural land outflow model, the economic rationality of transferring land was mainly considered. The importance of perceptual behavioural control in the rural land outflow model was greater than it was in the rural land inflow model. The results of this research can provide a reference for formulating government policies, achieving the sustainable development of land resources, and guaranteeing food supply.