To Use Face Masks or Not After COVID-19 Vaccination? An Impact Analysis Using Mathematical Modeling

Abstract

The question of whether to drop or to continue wearing face masks especially after being vaccinated among the public is controversial. This is sourced from the efficacy levels of COVID-19 vaccines developed, approved, and in use. We develop a deterministic mathematical model that factors in a combination of the COVID-19 vaccination program and the wearing of face masks as intervention strategies to curb the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. We use the model specifically to assess the potential impact of wearing face masks, especially by the vaccinated individuals in combating further contraction of COVID-19 infections. Validation of the model is achieved by performing its goodness of fit to the Republic of South Africa's reported COVID-19 positive cases data using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in the fitR package. We first consider a scenario where the uptake of the vaccines and wearing of the face masks, especially by the vaccinated individuals is extremely low. Second, we consider a scenario where the uptake of the vaccines and wearing of the face masks by people who are vaccinated is relatively high. Third, we consider a scenario where the uptake of the vaccines and wearing of the face masks by the vaccinated individuals is on an upward trajectory. Findings from scenario one and scenario two, respectively, indicate a highly surging number of infections and a low recorded number of infections. For scenario three, it shows that the increased extent of wearing of the face masks by the vaccinated individuals at increasing levels of vaccine and face mask average protection results in a highly accelerated decrease in COVID-19 infections. However, wearing face masks alone also results in the reduction of the peak number of infections at increasing levels of face mask efficacy though the infections delay clearing.

Influence of Cognitive Factors on Adherence to Social Distancing and the Use of Masks during the COVID-19 Pandemic by Young Adults: A Systematic Review

“…Several measures were taken to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, namely social distancing and mask use. The efficacy of these measures alone (Kinyili et al 2022;Sun et al 2022) or combined (Rao et al 2021) to reduce the Reproduction Rate (Ro) of COVID-19 is well established, reinforcing the importance of adherence to these behaviors for personal and community protection.…”

Face Mask Use and Associated Factors Among Students: Mixed Methods Study

“…On the other hand, about 50% of students rightly stated that antibiotics and flu vaccines are not effective against COVID-19 infection [ 36 ]. A recent study conducted by Kinyili et al [ 37 ] showed that an increased extent of mask-wearing among vaccinated individuals increased with an increasing level of vaccination and that regular face mask use resulted in a sharp decrease in COVID-19 infections. However, wearing face masks alone also resulted in a reduction in the peak number of infections with an increasing level of face mask efficacy, although there can be a delay as the infections are cleared; that is, treatment of COVID-19 does not always lead to immediate recovery, as mild to moderate symptoms persist [ 38 ].…”

COVID‐19 vaccination strategies in Africa: A scoping review of the use of mathematical models to inform policy

“…Two studies calibrated their transmission rates to vary over time to account for public health measures without directly modelling specific NPIs due to inconsistencies in implementation and compliance across countries [20,43]. The NPIs explored in these studies were mainly social distancing, face masks, quarantine, travel restrictions, isolation and testing [21,25,34,39,43,45].…”

“…Okyere [42], Wamalwa [19], Kinyili [39], Amouch [28], Agossou [33], Dashtbali [21], Gozzi [29], Edholm [43] Compare vaccination and NPIs 9 (28%) Diarra [36], Dembek [20], Zhu [45], Oloniiju [34], Kinyili [39], Boutayeb [25], El Hadj Moussa [47], Dashtbali [21],…”