Tomiko Yamaguchi 山口富子 and Masato Fukushima 福島真人, eds., <i>Yosoku ga tsukuru shakai: “Kagaku no kotoba” no tsukawarekata</i> 予測がつくる社会: 「科学の言葉」の使われ方 [<i>Simulation, Prediction, and Society: The Politics of Forecasting</i>]

Sugawara, Shin-etsu

doi:10.1080/18752160.2021.1877036

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Rather, a society can abandon predictive simulation systems despite its excellent competence of computing technologies, partly because knowing possible futures may not fit in the ways that this society constructs public knowledge. Thus, analyzing the ecology of predictive simulations can elucidate the distinctive governance characteristics of each society (Hibino 2019; Sugawara 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…She argues that the models' technical capacities and governance characteristics in different societies may affect their ecology (Hibino 2019). Given predictive simulation is key to risk governance (Renn 2008) and anticipatory governance (Guston 2014), investigating the ecology of quantitative prediction tools may provide new insights for specific governance patterns (Sugawara 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Eliminating Human Agency: Why Does Japan Abandon Predictive Simulations?

Sugawara

2021

Science, Technology, & Human Values

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Prediction plays a vital role in every branch of our contemporary lives. While the credibility of quantitative simulations through mathematical modeling may seem to be universal, how they are perceived and embedded in policy processes may vary by society. Investigating the ecology of quantitative prediction tools, this article articulates the cultural specificity of Japanese society through the concept of Jasanoff’s “civic epistemology.” Taking COVID-19 and nuclear disasters as examples, this article examines how predictive simulations are mobilized, contested, and abandoned. In both cases, current empirical observation eventually replaces predictive future simulations, and mechanical application of preset criteria substitutes political judgment. These analyses suggest that the preferred register of objectivity in Japan—one of the constitutive dimensions of civic epistemology—consists not in producing numerical results, but in precluding human judgment. Such public calls to eliminate human agency both in knowledge and in policy-making can be a distinct character of Japanese civic epistemology, which may explain why Japan repeatedly withdraws from predictive simulations. It implies the possibility that Western societies’ faith in human judgment should not be taken for granted, but explained.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%