Context: Many modern software systems must deal with changes and uncertainty. Traditional dependability requirements engineering is not equipped for this since it assumes that the context in which a system operates be stable and deterministic, which often leads to failures and recurrent corrective maintenance. The Contextual Goal Model (CGM), a requirements model that proposes the idea of context-dependent goal fulfillment, mitigates the problem by relating alternative strategies for achieving goals to the space of context changes. Additionally, the Runtime Goal Model (RGM) adds behavioral constraints to the fulfillment of goals that may be checked against system execution traces.Objective: This paper proposes GODA (Goal-Oriented Dependability Analysis) and its supporting framework as concrete means for reasoning about the dependability requirements of systems that operate in dynamic contexts.Method: GODA blends the power of CGM, RGM and probabilistic model checking to provide a formal requirements specification and verification solution. At design time, it can help with design and implementation decisions; at runtime it helps the system self-adapt by analyzing the different alternatives and selecting the one with the highest probability for the system to be dependable. GODA is integrated into TAO4ME, a state-of-the-art tool for goal modeling and analysis.Results: GODA has been evaluated against feasibility and scalability on Mobee: a real-life software system that allows people to share live and updated information about public transportation via mobile devices, and on larger goal models. GODA can verify, at runtime, up to two thousand leaf-tasks in less than 35ms, and requires less than 240 kbytes of memory.Conclusion: Presented results show GODA's design-time and runtime verification capabilities, even under limited computational resources, and the scalability of the proposed solution.