Toward an improved conceptual understanding of North American tree species distributions

Copenhaver‐Parry, Paige E.; Shuman, Bryan N.

doi:10.1002/ecs2.1853

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 249 publications

(721 reference statements)

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“…While these findings do not directly support our initial hypothesis regarding variation in the relative importance of climate and biotic interactions across elevational gradients, lower model performance among lower‐elevation montane species does indicate that climate contributes more strongly to the distributions of high‐elevation species, and alternative non‐climatic processes may operate more strongly at lower elevations. Overall, our findings are in agreement with many other studies that have identified climate as an important driver of North American tree distributions and that have found limited evidence for a strong, independent influence of alternative processes including biotic interactions (reviewed in Copenhaver‐Parry, Shuman, & Tinker, ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Copenhaver‐Parry

Bell

2018

J Vegetation Science

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Aims: Species distributions are hypothesized to be underlain by a complex association of processes that span multiple spatial scales including biotic interactions, dispersal limitation, fine-scale resource gradients and climate. Species disequilibrium with climate may reflect the effects of non-climatic processes on species distributions, yet distribution models have rarely directly considered non-climatic processes. Here, we use a Joint Species Distribution Model (JSDM) to investigate the influence of nonclimatic factors on species co-occurrence patterns and to directly quantify the relative influences of climate and alternative processes that may generate correlated responses in species distributions, such as species interactions, on tree co-occurrence patterns.Location: US Rocky Mountains. Methods:We apply a Bayesian JSDM to simultaneously model the co-occurrence patterns of ten dominant tree species across the Rocky Mountains, and evaluate climatic and residual correlations from the fitted model to determine the relative contribution of each component to observed co-occurrence patterns. We also evaluate predictions generated from the fitted model relative to a single-species modelling approach.Results: For most species, correlation due to climate covariates exceeded residual correlation, indicating an overriding influence of broad-scale climate on co-occurrence patterns. Accounting for covariance among species did not significantly improve predictions relative to a single-species approach, providing limited evidence for a strong independent influence of species interactions on distribution patterns. Conclusions:Overall, our findings indicate that climate is an important driver of regional biodiversity patterns and that interactions between dominant tree species contribute little to explain species co-occurrence patterns among Rocky Mountain trees.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Copenhaver‐Parry

Bell

2018

J Vegetation Science

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“…However, the abundance and distribution of a species can be strongly shaped by competitive interactions, particularly at local to landscape scales (Copenhaver‐Parry et al. ), and process‐based models are a promising tool for determining where and why interspecific biotic interactions might modulate how tree species respond to climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While our approach takes a step beyond climate suitability studies by considering the processes that are important during a sensitive life-history stage (regeneration), we still only consider the responses of individual tree species to changing climate and fire. However, the abundance and distribution of a species can be strongly shaped by competitive interactions, particularly at local to landscape scales (Copenhaver-Parry et al 2017), and process-based models are a promising tool for determining where and why interspecific biotic interactions might modulate how tree species respond to climate change.…”

Section: What Causes Regeneration Failure (Or Success?)mentioning

confidence: 99%

It takes a few to tango: changing climate and fire regimes can cause regeneration failure of two subalpine conifers

Hansen

Braziunas

Rammer

et al. 2018

Ecology

106

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Environmental change is accelerating in the 21st century, but how multiple drivers may interact to alter forest resilience remains uncertain. In forests affected by large high-severity disturbances, tree regeneration is a resilience linchpin that shapes successional trajectories for decades. We modeled stands of two widespread western U.S. conifers, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia), in Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, USA) to ask (1) What combinations of distance to seed source, fire return interval, and warming-drying conditions cause postfire tree-regeneration failure? (2) If postfire tree regeneration was successful, how does early tree density differ under future climate relative to historical climate? We conducted a stand-level (1 ha) factorial simulation experiment using the individual-based forest process model iLand to identify combinations of fire return interval (11-100 yr), distance to seed source (50-1,000 m), and climate (historical, mid-21st century, late-21st century) where trees failed to regenerate by 30-yr postfire. If regeneration was successful, we compared stand densities between climate periods. Simulated postfire regeneration were surprisingly resilient to changing climate and fire drivers. Douglas-fir regeneration failed more frequently (55%) than lodgepole pine (28% and 16% for non-serotinous and serotinous stands, respectively). Distance to seed source was an important driver of regeneration failure for Douglas-fir and non-serotinous lodgepole pine; regeneration never failed when stands were 50 m from a seed source and nearly always failed when stands were 1 km away. Regeneration of serotinous lodgepole pine only failed when fire return intervals were ≤20 yr and stands were far (1 km) from a seed source. Warming climate increased regeneration success for Douglas-fir but did not affect lodgepole pine. If regeneration was successful, postfire density varied with climate. Douglas-fir and serotinous lodgepole pine regeneration density both increased under 21st-century climate but in response to different climate variables (growing season length vs. cold limitation). Results suggest that, given a warmer future with larger and more frequent fires, a greater number of stands that fail to regenerate after fires combined with increasing density in stands where regeneration is successful could produce a more coarse-grained forest landscape.

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“…Additionally, assessments of mismatch can be sensitive to which variables are included in models. We focused on responses to soil water because of its importance for trees in this region, and across North America (Copenhaver‐Parry et al ), however other environmental variables may be uniquely important for different species. We chose to model all of the species with the same predictors to enable better comparisons.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extensive mismatches between species distributions and performance and their relationship to functional traits

Bohner

Diez

2019

Ecology Letters

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Mismatches between species distributions and their optimal habitat are predicted by ecological theory and will affect species responses to changing climate. However, empirical tests lack consensus on the prevalence of such mismatches and their underlying mechanisms. Here we present a conceptual framework to quantify the mismatch between optimal conditions for species occurrence and multiple measures of population and individual performance (density, adult growth and survival, and recruitment) and the associated performance reduction, or cost. We quantified these mismatches for 59 tree species in the western US along a soil water balance gradient and found high variability in mismatches among species and among performance measures, often resulting in high costs. We used functional traits to explore how dispersal limitation, migration lags, and competitive exclusion may cause mismatches. Overall, the large variability in mismatches, their costs and the relationship with functional traits highlight the nuanced relationships between species’ performance and their distributions.

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Toward an improved conceptual understanding of North American tree species distributions

Cited by 20 publications

References 249 publications

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

Species interactions weakly modify climate‐induced tree co‐occurrence patterns

It takes a few to tango: changing climate and fire regimes can cause regeneration failure of two subalpine conifers

Extensive mismatches between species distributions and performance and their relationship to functional traits

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