Toward Learning from Change Pathways: Reviewing Theory of Change and Its Discontents

Abstract

The concept of Theory of Change (ToC) is well established in the evaluation literature, underpinning substantial research and practice efforts. However, its ability to facilitate learning has been increasingly critiqued. The objective of this paper is to identify, characterize, and evaluate concerns over the use of ToCs based on a review of relevant studies. Seven concerns are found: distinguishing ToCs from other evaluation approaches, conceptual vagueness, under-developed ToCs, contributing theoretical knowledge, stakeholder engagement, considering context, and capturing complexity. Priority areas for improvement include integrating context and complexity throughout the ToC process, contributing theoretical knowledge, and engaging stakeholders as appropriate.

Unpacking the Theory Behind One Health Food Safety Programs: A Vietnam Case Study

“…The identification of assumptions underlying the change processes was not found to be particularly difficult, as typically reported in ToC case studies ( 34 ); however, one participant emphasized some assumptions were large and require dedicated interventions to address them. A big assumption, for example, is that SafePORK can contribute to the development of food safety certification.…”

“…Combining ToC and OM can address some criticisms associated with each approach. For example, ToCs can sometimes be seen as vague, generic, and simplistic ( 34 ). This case study demonstrated that developing progress markers for certain outcome pathways can provide further detail into outcome indicators that are typically missing in ToCs.…”

Analysis of Undergraduates’ Environmentally Friendly Behavior: Case Study of Tzu Chi University Environmental Education Program

“…The criteria for the theory-of-change analysis involved well-defined and measured results following a logical sequence within a plausible timeframe [35][36][37][38][39]. The Environmental Education Program was administrated within the plausible timeframe of the academic year 2021/2022, where pre-tests and post-tests using the survey were conducted.…”

“…From the review of existing literature, the framework for environmental education programs, which lead to improved environmentally friendly behavior in undergraduates, needs to be further developed. This research attempts to construct a theory of change [7,[35][36][37][38][39] involving in the improvement of undergraduates' environmental awareness, attitudes, norms and efficacy, as well as an increase in environmentally friendly behavior as the ultimate environmental outcome, in order for stakeholders to learn from experience and continue to challenge existing assumptions; the following hypotheses are proposed: Hypothesis 1 (H1): The Tzu Chi University Environmental Education Program's lessons involving environmental and sustainability topics will significantly improve the environmental awareness and attitudes of undergraduates from the Experimental Group.…”

“…In order for our theory of change to be feasible, the assumptions shown in Figure 1 needed to be well defined, justified, realizable and measurable [35][36][37][38][39]. Within the "reach" assumption, undergraduates from the Experimental Group were well defined, realizable and measurable, as they were registered for the courses throughout the semesters.…”