Towards a theory of fragile state transitions: evidence from Yemen, Bangladesh and Laos

Abstract

This article uses the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) fragile states framework to evaluate fragile state transitions. Our objective is to find out why some states considered fragile have recovered, while others remain fragile for long periods. We identify three categories of countries: those in a fragility trap, those that have exited it, and those that fluctuate between fragility and stability. CIFP data are used to examine state transitions for each category. One state from each category is then subjected to further country-level analysis. Our findings reinforce the view that state transitions do not follow a unique path and that effective engagement in fragile states requires different approaches across cases. Keywords: Bangladesh; Laos; state fragility; transitions; Yemen; CIFP IntroductionThe majority of research on state fragility has, thus far, focused on its causes and consequences.1 Policy responses have been purely reactive, leading to costly, ineffective outcomes and often-irreversible situations which require massive amounts of resources and sustained engagement to remedy.2 Our objective in this article is to determine why some countries that were once considered fragile have successfully recovered, while others remain fragile for long periods of time. If successful, such a comparison could provide valuable insights on how states that are slipping into deeper fragility can be prevented from doing so.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Assets That Influence Informal Garment Workers’ Livelihood Security in Laos

“…Laos has been concerned with the ongoing and gradual implementation of the new economic mechanism since 1986, when the country transitioned from a socialist economy into a more market-oriented economy [1,2]. The primary aim of new economic mechanism was to reform the agriculture sector (agriculture production to self-reliance), state-owned enterprises (public-sector investment), increase industrialization (promoting foreign direct investment), and support the economic growth (by increasing manufacturing production).…”

Defragilization of fragile states: evaluation through a logit regression analysis

“…The unique record about this subject was, "the "defragilization" of states can be viewed as a process whereby societies develop mechanisms for nonviolent conflict and dispute resolution institutions" (NOOR et al, 2010). Under another perspective, Carment et al (2013), in a study on the transition of fragile states from 1980 to 2010 (using the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy -CIFP), concluded that successful transitions out of fragility (transition can be understood as a defragilization process) are processes of improvement of authority, legitimacy and capacity of the state.…”

Conceptual Perspectives on State Fragility

“…The first one is inspired by the Weberian definition of the state and views fragility as the extent to which actual practices and capacity of the state differ from its idealized image (Carment et al 2008;Carment et al 2010). This perspective can be denoted as functionalist or the ALC approach 21 (Carment et al 2015). Authority refers to the state's ability to enforce binding regulation, exercise coercive force on the territory it controls, provide core public goods, and create enabling environment for the population.…”

“…In the article, they are referred to as functionalist or "ALC" (which stands for authority, legitimacy, and capacity), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) approaches. 8 (Carment et al 2010(Carment et al , 2015. The former pays specific attention to a state's ability to perform its core functions, such as maintaining control over its territory and monopoly over the use of force and violence, as well as core public goods provision.…”