Towards integrated knowledge of climate change in Arctic marine systems: a systematic literature review of multidisciplinary research

Abstract

Climate change affects Arctic marine ecosystems, the ecosystem services they provide, and the human well-being that relies on these services. The impacts of climate change in the Arctic and elsewhere involve cascading effects and feedbacks that flow across social-ecological systems (SES), such as when sea ice loss alters food security through changes in the distribution of marine animals. These cascades and feedbacks across social and ecological systems can exacerbate the effects of climate change or lead to surprising outcomes. Identifying where cascades and feedbacks may occur in SES can help anticipate, or even prevent unexpected outcomes of climate change, and lead to improved policy responses. Here, we perform a systematic literature review of multidisciplinary Arctic research to determine the state of knowledge of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Then, in a case study corresponding to Inuit regions, we use network analysis to integrate research into a SES perspective and identify which linkages have been most versus least studied, and whether some potential cascades and feedbacks have been overlooked. Finally, we propose ways forward to advance knowledge of changing Arctic marine SES, including transdisciplinary approaches involving multiple disciplines and the collaboration of Indigenous and local knowledge holders.

The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning

“…Projections indicate that, even if global stabilization of temperature below 1.5°C is realized, changes will continue to manifest over an extended period, perhaps even millennial timescales [13] and may include unprecedented shifts in structure [14]. Changes to key components of Arctic ecosystems are already occurring, yet the collated evidence of how changes to baseline conditions are proceeding across the Arctic Ocean is still poorly constrained [15], focused on a limited number of exemplar areas [16], and seldom adopts a holistic view that begins to provide a nuanced understanding of the modus operandi of the Arctic [17]. This is concerning because informed decision- and policy-making benefits from a broad understanding of system dynamics, including feedbacks and the likelihood of ecological surprises [18], yet the focus of study is already shifting from the natural sciences to social sciences and humanities to meet legislative and policy demands [19].…”

Systemic risk of cruise ship incidents from an Arctic and insurance perspective

“…The economic potential of Arctic cruise ship tourism has arguably never been greater, with rapid and intensifying climate change leading to increasingly large ice-frees areas in the summer months (Falardeau and Bennett, 2019;Malinauskaite et al, 2019). However, despite an opening up of economic opportunities, multiple risks remain (Emmerson and Lahn, 2012;Jóhannsdóttir & Cook, 2015) involving its sensitive ecosystems, tourism-reliant local economies and the capacity for critical infrastructure to respond and cope with potential incidents in the region.…”

Inuit observations of a Tunicata bloom unusual for the Amundsen Gulf, western Canadian Arctic

“…Research on the physiological and behavioural impact of large larvacean blooms on marine mammals and fishes. Nomura and Davis 2005, Connelly et al 2016, Nakano et al 2016, Falardeau and Bennett 2019 What are some other potential impacts?…”

“…Climate change impacts are being experienced across Arctic marine ecosystems, the documentation and analysis of which requires transdisciplinary approaches and the collaboration of local knowledge holders (Falardeau and Bennett 2019). Inuit are astute and highly skilled observers of the environment and are often at the forefront of observing climate change effects (Kokelj et al 2012;Pearce et al 2015).…”