Track Patterns of Landfalling and Coastal Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, Their Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Potential Effect of Global Warming

McCloskey, Terrence A.; Bianchette, Thomas A.; Liu, Kam‐biu

doi:10.4236/ajcc.2013.23a002

Cited by 24 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…A southwesterly displaced BH (consistent with a strongly negative NAO36), steered Cape Verde TCs towards Central America and the Gulf Coast, resulting in the TC maximum evident in the YOK-G TC record. The gradual YOK-G TC activity decrease after 1650 A.D. is consistent with observational and modelling studies showing gradual northward ITCZ, Hadley Cell, and BH repositioning due to AMO warming (and increasing NH temperature) from peak LIA conditions22383940 (Figs 3 and 4). Following industrialisation, rising atmospheric GHG concentrations expanded the Hadley cells414243 while rising anthropogenic sulphate aerosol emissions shifted the ITCZ southward1838444546.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…1) and includes both Cape Verde (originating within the MDR west of Africa)6 and non-Cape Verde storms (originating nearby in the western Caribbean)2122. BH strength and position exert a significant control on Cape Verde TC track positions, with straighter east-west trajectories commonly associated with a weaker BH (a negative NAO phase)22. Conversely, TCs originating in the western Caribbean generally track northwards and are unrelated to MDR SSTs or BH strength22.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…BH strength and position exert a significant control on Cape Verde TC track positions, with straighter east-west trajectories commonly associated with a weaker BH (a negative NAO phase)22. Conversely, TCs originating in the western Caribbean generally track northwards and are unrelated to MDR SSTs or BH strength22.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Baldini

McElwaine

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

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confidence: 99%

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Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Baldini

McElwaine

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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“…The same method was applied to North Atlantic TCs [4] and the value of k, defining a priori number of clusters, was set at three. McCloskey et al [5] used K-means clustering to group TC tracks into coherent clusters and analyzed in terms of various climate modes including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). However, Gong et al [6] recognized that K-means clusters are affected by the initial seed locations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cluster Analysis of Philippine Tropical Cyclone Climatology: Applications to Forecasting

Il¹,

Lm²

2016

J Climatol Weather Forecasting

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This study aims at providing an increased understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Philippines, to assist in reducing the fatalities and economic costs of TC impacts. A cluster analysis, using K-means, is applied to Philippine region TCs for the period 1950-2011. The clustering is carried out for TC genesis and decay locations, and TC tracks. Silhouette coefficient values and key meteorological and oceanic variables determine the optimal cluster numbers. It is found that, for the Philippine region, there are 4 genesis location, 5 decay location and 6 track clusters. The classification of TC genesis locations captures the longitudinal separation of cyclogenesis regions. The formation area east of the Philippines (west of 140°E) is the most active region, with 398 genesis points. The main TC dissipation area is Southeast Asia, with 352 decay points. Clustering the TC tracks identifies various track types by separating them into discrete patterns. Several distinct types of straight moving and recurving trajectories emerge. Short, straight west northwestward tracks directed towards Indochina have the highest trajectory frequency, with 248 TC tracks. The spatial and temporal behavior of Philippine TCs is determined from the clusters of genesis locations, decay locations, and tracks, for specific months. Because the TC genesis locations define the subsequent TC paths and landfall locations, they consequently also provide valuable TC forecasting guidance. Moreover, the monthly distribution of genesis and decay locations, and tracks, enables the variability of seasonal cycles between the clusters to be calculated. [16] applied an FMM-based clustering algorithm to TC tracks over China and identified three clusters. A probabilistic clustering method based on regression mixture models has grouped TCs over southwestern Indian Ocean, resulting in track shape groups [17]. Unlike K-means, the regression mixture model allows TC track clustering of varying shapes and lengths. Nakamura et al. [18] solved the problem of K-means by using the first and second moments of TC tracks to approximate the shape and lengths of tracks. The mass moments were then applied to K-means that demonstrated reliable clustering results for North Atlantic TC tracks, and produced an optimum of six clusters. Colbert [19] focus on TCs forming in the main North Atlantic development region (MDR). Their classification method for track types is based on defined threat regions that yield similar results to ref. [15,18]. The fuzzy c-means is another cluster method applied to TC tracks of Korean peninsula land falling TCs [20]. Kim [21] used the same method for the WNP and identified seven clusters as the optimal number. This

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“…Previous studies have investigated NA TC tracks using CA [1]- [5]; however, no analysis has documented regions of TC decay. Moreover, little attention has also been paid to cluster the genesis locations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Cluster Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Corporal-Lodangco

Richman

Leslie

et al. 2014

Procedia Computer Science

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Track Patterns of Landfalling and Coastal Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, Their Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Potential Effect of Global Warming

Cited by 24 publications

References 53 publications

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Cluster Analysis of Philippine Tropical Cyclone Climatology: Applications to Forecasting

Cluster Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

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