Trajectories of Mental Health Problems in Childhood and Adult Voting Behaviour: Evidence from the 1970s British Cohort Study

Abstract

The link between childhood mental health difficulties such as conduct problems and adult political abstention has been overlooked despite early mental health difficulties potentially resulting in political self-marginalisation. Using the1970s British Cohort Study, we estimate developmental trajectories of conduct problems (i.e., from 5 to 16 years). Logistic regression, linear probability models, and propensity score matching were then conducted to test the association between trajectory group membership and voter turnout at 30, 42, and 46 years of age. Three distinct trajectories of conduct problems were identified: a normative (n = 11,871; reference group), moderate-chronic (n = 3433), and elevated-chronic (n = 250) group. Results revealed an association between conduct problems and decreased turnout. In particular the elevated-chronic group had a decreased odds of voting of 52.2%, 52.0%, and 45.7%, as compared to the normative group at 30, 42, and 46 years respectively. The moderate-chronic group had a decreased odds of voting of 24.7% as compared to the normative group at age 30 only. Matched results and linear probability models substantiated findings, suggesting (1) the importance of considering childhood factors when examining antecedents of lifelong voting behaviour, and (2) the political self-marginalisation of people with chronic childhood conduct problems more than 3 decades later.

Psychological Antecedents of Political Outcomes: Joint Developmental Trajectories of Mental Health Difficulties

“…However, the co-occurrence of MH conditions and heterotypic continuity, as well as the spectrum of MH conditions investigated currently remains understudied in the literature on MH and political outcomes, warranting more attention. In the context of the current findings, coupled with recent findings linking childhood and adolescent conduct problems to reduced voter turnout in mid-adulthood (Girard & Okolikj, 2023), we would argue that it is crucial for future research to take a lifespan approach when investigating the psychological origins/antecedents of political outcomes, rather than focusing almost exclusively on adults.…”

“…At the same time, adolescence is also a formidable time for the development and emergence of voting habits, political ideology, and activism (Okolikj and Hooghe 2022;Pancer et al 2007), which evidence stability over time (Franklin 2004). And yet, the literature examining the association between MH and political participation often overlooks this developmental period, with some notable exceptions (e.g., Girard & Okolikj, 2023;Wray-Lake et al, 2019). Against this backdrop, our results then contribute in novel ways to the emerging literature on the intersection between MH and political outcomes, pointing to 1) the importance of late childhood/early adolescence and 2) the nuanced complexity of associations which are dependent on the type of MH difficulty present, co-occurrence of MH difficulties, and the political outcome considered.…”

“…does not account for children/adolescents affected at sub-clinical or lower thresholds of MH difficulties, who have also been found to have poorer life outcomes across multiple domains (Thompson et al 2023), including political participation (Girard and Okolikj 2023). We therefore take a dimensional rather than categorical approach to examining externalizing and internalizing MH conditions in this study, recognizing that MH difficulties across the continuum can create significant disturbances in cognitive, emotional, and behavioral functioning, net of meeting a clinical diagnosis, and result in poorer ensuing outcomes.…”

“…In this research study, we aim to shift the attention in the emerging MH and political outcomes literature, by challenging past scholarly omissions in three conceptual and methodological areas including: 1) the narrow scope of MH conditions examined, 2) accounting for both continuity and co-occurrence of different MH conditions, and 3) largely unexamined developmental periods (with some notable exceptions e.g., Girard & Okolikj, 2023;Wray-Lake et al, 2019). We do so by estimating joint developmental trajectories of internalizing and externalizing MH conditions, from childhood to adolescence, and their association with various forms of political participation, motivation, attitudes, and antiestablishment vote choice in early adulthood.…”

Psychological distress and voting behaviour in nine countries of the former Soviet Union

“…It will be important for future research to examine the association between mental health and voting using measures that have been validated in all of our study countries. In addition, in the current study the analysis was only adjusted for factors occurring in adulthood (as no information was collected on childhood characteristics) even though one recent study found that childhood conduct problems were also associated with decreased voting in adulthood even after controlling for adult psychiatric morbidity 70 . This suggests that it may be necessary for future studies to focus on both internalising and externalising problems when examining voting behaviour, and also, that the use of a life course perspective would be of value.…”