Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Lenton, Timothy M.; Folke, Carl; Liverman, Diana; Summerhayes, Colin; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cornell, Sarah; Crucifix, Michel; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Lade, Steven J.; Scheffer, Marten; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Cited by 2,275 publications

(1,631 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…This model helps reduce some unknowns in krill–climate dynamics, despite a paucity of data, but future work would benefit from using more accurate survey information and improved experimental understanding of the responses of krill to multiple climate impacts. On the other hand, our projections may be too conservative if as Steffen et al () note, self‐reinforcing feedbacks push the planet on a much more severe “hothouse trajectory”, with melting of the East Antarctic ice sheet identified as one potential tipping element.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Tulloch

Plagányi

Brown

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

127

119

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Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures—historical commercial whaling and future climate change—on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate–biological coupled “Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments” (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice‐associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Tulloch

Plagányi

Brown

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

127

119

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…(IPCC, 2013). Changes in precipitation patterns: warmer temperatures hold more moisture in the air causing less frequent, but higher intensity, precipitation; this will likely threaten water supplies for irrigation (IPCC, 2013; Steffen et al, 2018). Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations (up to 550 μmol mol −1 by 2050); increased plant growth with lower nutrient content and water use (IPCC, 2013; Jin et al, 2019).…”

Section: Research Gap 2: Modeling For Climate Change Impacts On Phospmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil Phosphorus Modeling for Modern Agriculture Requires Balance of Science and Practicality: A Perspective

et al. 2019

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The use of phosphorus (P) fertilizers in arable crop and pastoral systems is expected to change as modern agriculture is challenged to produce more food with fewer inputs. Agricultural systems models offer a dual purpose to support and integrate recent scientific advances and to identify strategies for farmers to improve nutrient efficiency. However, compared with nitrogen and carbon, advances in P modeling have been less successful. We assessed the potential opportunity of P modeling to increase P efficiency for modern agriculture and identified the current challenges associated with modeling P dynamics at the field scale. Three major constraints were (i) a paucity of detailed field datasets to model strategies aimed at increasing P use efficiency, (ii) a limited ability to predict P cycling and availability under the local effects of climate change, and (iii) a restricted ability to match measured soil P fractions to conceptual and modelable pools in soils with different mineral properties. To improve P modeling success, modelers will need to walk a tightrope to balance the roles of assisting detailed empirical research and providing practical land management solutions. We conclude that a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration is needed to acquire suitable datasets, continually assess the need for model adjustment, and provide flexibility for progression of scientific theory. Such an approach is likely to advance P management for increased P use efficiency. Core Ideas Models can complement research and identify strategies to increase P efficiency. A variety of quality long‐term field trials is needed to advance model capabilities. Well‐calibrated soil models are needed to assess climate change impacts on P cycling. A framework is needed to streamline multidisciplinary research to improve P management.

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“…Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are a major contributor to climate change, [1][2][3] and today's unprecedented rate of global warming necessitates a drastic shift to clean energy. Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells provide ondemand electrical power with zero local carbon emissions and are therefore promising components for a renewable energy infrastructure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Graded Microporous Layers for Enhanced Capillary‐Driven Liquid Water Removal in Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells

Shrestha

Ouellette

Lee

et al. 2019

Adv Materials Inter

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A novel microporous layer (MPL) is designed and fabricated with spatially graded poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE) to alleviate liquid water flooding in the cathode gas diffusion layer (GDL) of the polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell. In operando GDL liquid water distributions are examined using synchrotron X‐ray radiography and oxygen mass transport resistance via electrochemical characterizations, and it is found that the graded PTFE content in the MPL results in enhanced PEM fuel cell performance at high current densities (≥ 1.0 A cm−2). Specifically, less liquid water accumulates within the cathode GDL substrate, and the oxygen mass transport resistance is substantially lowered. This lower substrate water content is attributed to enhanced capillary‐driven removal of liquid water through the use of the graded MPL. This study demonstrates how strongly the spatial distributions of wettability and pore size of the MPL influence the performance of the PEM fuel cell.

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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

Cited by 2,275 publications

References 82 publications

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Soil Phosphorus Modeling for Modern Agriculture Requires Balance of Science and Practicality: A Perspective

Graded Microporous Layers for Enhanced Capillary‐Driven Liquid Water Removal in Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells

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