With a changing climate, drought has become a common natural disaster. In our study, population exposure to drought over the Pearl River Basin (PRB) under climate change is investigated. Drought frequency is evaluated through the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The data needed for SPEI calculation are obtained based on the ensemble of multiple global climate model (GCM)outputs. Population exposure to drought for the future is assessed by combining drought frequency under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three downscaled population scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3). Moreover, the main contribution (and their interactions) of GCM, RCP, and SSP to the sources of uncertainty on population exposure projections are explored through multi-level factorial analysis. Results indicate that the temperature and precipitation would continually increase for the future, and the increase in drought frequency is more substantial during the 2080s than in the 2050s. Meanwhile, population exposure to drought accounts for 21.60% of the total population in 1976-2005 over the PRB area. During the 2050s, it would decrease to 11.98-12.28% under RCP4.5 and 14.15-14.40%, under RCP8.5, respectively. By the 2080s, population exposure would slightly reduce under RCP4.5 and increase to 28.86-29.44% under RCP8.5. GCM is the primary uncertainty source of drought exposure in the 2050s, with contribution rates of 72.41%, 57.47%, 51.10%, and 78.71% to the four
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