Transformation of climate and its sway on hydro-climatology using representative concentration pathways (RCP) in Geba catchment of Ethiopia

Asnake, Asamen Birara; Ayana, Melkamu Teshome; Awass, Adane Abebe; Goshime, Demelash Wondimagegnehu

doi:10.1007/s40808-020-01029-9

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The result obtained under all the scenarios considered in this study have shown increasing trend. This result agrees with different studies made by other researchers in Ethiopian catchments (IPCC 2014, Asnake et al , 2020; Gashaw et al , 2020; Selam et al , 2020).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

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Purpose To assess the impacts of climate change on stream flow and evaluation of reservoir performances, reliability, resilience and vulnerability (RRV) indices are contemplated. Precipitation, temperature (Tmax, Tmin), relative humidity and solar radiation are the hydrological and meteorological data which have been used extensively. Climate data like RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for the base period 1976–2005 and future climate scenario for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 as per the convenience. Design/methodology/approach The hydrologic engineering center hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) model was used to simulate the current and future inflow volume into the reservoir. The model performance resulted as 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 0.78 R2 and −3.17 D and during calibration the results obtained were 0.8 NSE, 0.82 R2 and 2.1 D. The projected climate scenario illustrates an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature though a decreasing trend was documented for precipitation. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% without reservoir condition and greater than 50% for other conditions but volumetric reliability and resilience varies between 50% and 100% for all conditions. The vulnerability result of reservoirs may face shortage of flow ranging from 5.7% to 33.8%. Findings Evaluating reservoir simulation and hydropower generation for different climate scenarios by HEC-ResSim model, the energy generated for upper dam ranges from 349.4 MWhr to 331.2 MWhr and 4045.82 MWhr and 3946.74 MWhr for short and long-term future scenario, respectively. RCP for Tmax and Tmin goes on increasing whereas precipitation and inflow to reservoir decreases owing to increase in evapotranspiration. Under diverse climatic conditions power production goes on varying simultaneously. Originality/value This paper is original and all the references are properly cited.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…These scenarios are based on varying assumptions about future socio-economic development, energy usage, and greenhouse gas emissions, offering a range of potential future climate outcomes. This enables researchers to assess the potential impacts of different levels of greenhouse gas emissions, often used in conjunction with climate models to study various aspects of climate change, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events [176][177][178]. They play a crucial role in aiding policymakers and scientists in understanding potential risks and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies [179].…”

Section: Relevancementioning

confidence: 99%

Degradation Models and Maintenance Strategies for Reinforced Concrete Structures in Coastal Environments under Climate Change: A Review

Rincon,

Moscoso,

Hamami

et al. 2024

Buildings

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Modern engineering faces challenges in ensuring technical standards for service, durability, and sustainability. Political, administrative, and budgetary factors, coupled with climate change, pose tasks to structural integrity, affecting industries and economies. Marine infrastructures represent a strategic asset of a country as they handle a large part of the economic exchanges. This article analyzes five essential factors that play a fundamental role in the performance analysis of coastal structures: chloride-induced corrosion, degradation models, maintenance strategies, monitoring, and climate change. We start with reinforcement corrosion, which is considered as the main cause of distress, particularly in coastal zones, for the long-term behavior of structures. Additional pressure from the influences of climate change is becoming evident and extreme, leading to a reduction in capacity. To guarantee the lifespan of infrastructures, degradation models contribute by estimating the long-term performance of the asset as a strategic piece to the development of effective maintenance solutions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have gained recent prominence in this field due to their ability to learn intricate patterns from historical data, making them valuable instruments for predicting structural deterioration. Additionally, quantifying the condition of the structure from monitoring data plays a crucial part in providing information on the current situation of the structure. Finally, this review summarizes the challenges associated with the maintenance of aging marine structures considering aspects such as corrosion, monitoring, and the future challenges this area will face due to climate change.

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“…The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in Africa (CORDEX), which is produced under the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), has provided many regional climate models and their scenarios in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The evaluation and application of CORDEX outputs were widely reported for the water resource impact assessment in Ethiopia (Alehu et al, 2022; Ashaley et al, 2020; Asnake et al, 2021; Mengistu et al, 2021; Tesfaye et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Impacts of Future Climate on the Crop Water Requirement, Growth Period, and Drought on the Agricultural Watershed, in Ethiopia

Abraham

Muluneh

2022

Air, Soil and Water Research

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Quantifying the influence of climate change on the crop growth period, water requirement, and drought conditions is essential for integrated crop production system planning. In this study, the effects of climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Product (CMIP5) on Crop Water Requirement (CWR), Length of Growth Period (LGP), and drought conditions were quantified for Lake Hawassa watershed in Ethiopia. In this study, two regional climate models were selected that showed better performance on the evaluation criteria after applying a quantile mapping bias correction procedure. The impact analysis was conducted for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5). Drought analysis was performed using the standardized anomalies of rainfall (S-index). The future growing season of the area is projected to be between April 15 and May 1 on average for all years. The total crop water requirement was projected to increase to a value of 3,258.7 mm on average under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for all the stages at the end of 2080s from its baseline value of 3,180.4 mm. In addition, the drought forecast analysis shows extreme drought with S-index values <−1.6 in the 2050s and 2080s under RCP 8.5. Of all the time periods, the 2050s recorded the smallest number of years (10 out of 30 years) with a positive S-index value, indicating projected precipitation shortages during these time periods under RCP 8.5. With this result, the combined impacts of climate change on crop production factors are expected to be high in the region. The results suggest an early warning for the study region considering low economic and technological development as in many developing parts of the world. Therefore, understanding the future changes in climate variables and their impacts can be an important input for developing a better plan for adaptation and mitigation measures.

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Transformation of climate and its sway on hydro-climatology using representative concentration pathways (RCP) in Geba catchment of Ethiopia

Cited by 10 publications

References 21 publications

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Degradation Models and Maintenance Strategies for Reinforced Concrete Structures in Coastal Environments under Climate Change: A Review

Quantifying Impacts of Future Climate on the Crop Water Requirement, Growth Period, and Drought on the Agricultural Watershed, in Ethiopia

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