Transforming Agriculture in Southern Africa

Modeling the multi‐functionality of African savanna landscapes under global change

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Various recent publications have indicated that accelerated global change and its negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems in Southern Africa urgently demand quantitative assessment and modelling of a range of ecosystem services (Chaplin-Kramer et al, 2019;Conway et al, 2015;IPCC, 2019) on which rural communities depend. Information is needed on how these Ecosystem Services (ES) can be enhanced through sustainable land management interventions and enabling policies (Rötter et al, 2005;Sikora, Terry, Vlek, & Chitjja, 2020). Yet, it has also been claimed that, to date, the required system analyses, data and tools to quantify important interactions between biophysical and socio-economic components, their resilience and ability to contribute to livelihood needs do not exist (Midgley & Bond, 2015;Sikora et al, 2020).

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“…Information is needed on how these Ecosystem Services (ES) can be enhanced through sustainable land management interventions and enabling policies (Rötter et al, 2005;Sikora, Terry, Vlek, & Chitjja, 2020). Yet, it has also been claimed that, to date, the required system analyses, data and tools to quantify important interactions between biophysical and socio-economic components, their resilience and ability to contribute to livelihood needs do not exist (Midgley & Bond, 2015;Sikora et al, 2020). We disagree, but acknowledge that building an appropriate integrative modelling framework for assessing the multi-functionality of savanna landscapes is challenging.…”

“…among other things, have already led to a decline of essential ES in many regions of Africa. The situation is particularly critical in the savanna regions of Southern Africa, which are considered hotspots of global change impacts that lead to a deterioration of ES (Conway et al, 2015;IPCC, 2019;Sikora et al, 2020). Accelerated climate change is putting additional pressure on their multi-functionality (Conway et al, 2015;Midgley & Bond, 2015).…”

“…Accelerated climate change is putting additional pressure on their multi-functionality (Conway et al, 2015;Midgley & Bond, 2015). ES such as provision of food, feed, fuel, carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, habitat quality, pollination, and natural pest control are under threat (IPCC, 2019;Sikora et al, 2020). Southern Africa has also been identified as a hotspot for biodiversity, whereby agricultural expansion is seen as a key driving force for the declining species diversity (IPBES, 2018).…”

“…Southern Africa has also been identified as a hotspot for biodiversity, whereby agricultural expansion is seen as a key driving force for the declining species diversity (IPBES, 2018). The projected doubling of the African human population by 2050 and the climate change-induced increased frequency of extreme droughts underline the urgent need for science-informed assessments as a prerequisite for identifying sustainable land management options (IPCC, 2019;Sikora et al, 2020). About 70% of the population of southern Africa relies on agriculture.…”