Transition from endemic behavior to eradication of malaria due to combined drug therapies: An agent-model approach

Abstract

We introduce an agent-based model describing a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) system of humans and mosquitoes to predict malaria epidemiological scenarios in realistic biological conditions. Emphasis is given to the transition from endemic behavior to eradication of malaria transmission induced by combined drug therapies acting on both the gametocytemia reduction and on the selective mosquito mortality during parasite development in the mosquito. Our mathematical framework enables to uncover the critical values of the parameters characterizing the effect of each drug therapy. Moreover, our results provide quantitative evidence of what is empirically known: interventions combining gametocytemia reduction through the use of gametocidal drugs, with the selective action of ivermectin during parasite development in the mosquito, may actively promote disease eradication in the long run. In the agent model, the main properties of human-mosquito interactions are implemented as parameters and the model is validated by comparing simulations with real data of malaria incidence collected in the endemic malaria region of Chimoio in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss our findings in light of current drug administration strategies for malaria prevention, that may interfere with human-to-mosquito transmission process.

How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?

“…More recently, the use of heterogeneous effects in the SIR model [17] and the viral infections in the presence of latently infected cells [18] have been analyzed. While the present work focuses on non-pharmacological containment measures, in the battle against the COVID-19, studies about the use of ivermectin are in progress [19] , a drug used in malaria spreading scenarios which allows the transition from the prevalence to the eradication of the disease [20] .…”

Malaria Temporal Variation and Modelling Using Time-Series in Sussundenga District, Mozambique

“…An agent-based model validated malaria incidence data collected in Chimoio, Mozambique [ 42 ]. In recent years an increase usage of time series techniques has enabled better results [ 42 ].…”

A Model for Assessing the Quantitative Effects of Heterogeneous Affinity in Malaria Transmission along with Ivermectin Mass Administration

“…Our model extends a previous agent-based malaria model introduced in [24], now incorporating heterogeneous affinity. We consider a system of N m = 4000 mosquitoes and N h = 2000 human individuals, both including healthy and infected individuals, henceforth represented as M 0 and H 0 and as M i and H i , respectively (N m = M 0 + M i and N h = H 0 + H i ).…”

“…All simulations take place during a time period of 30 years. More details and a flowchart describing the computer implementation of the agent-based model are given in [24].…”