Transmission Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Liu, Tao; Hu, Jianxiong; Kang, Min; Lin, Lifeng; Zhong, Huan; Xiao, Jianpeng; He, Guanhao; Song, Tie; Huang, Qiong; Rong, Zuhua; Deng, Aiping; Zeng, Weilin; Tan, Xiaohua; Zeng, Shengda; Zhu, Zhihua; Li, Jiansen; Wan, Donghua; Lü, Jing; Deng, Huihong; He, Jianfeng

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3526307

Cited by 238 publications

(243 citation statements)

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“…For instance, Li et al computed the R0 of 2.2 using daily NCP data before January 4 in Wuhan. Our study using early epidemic stage data also found reproductive number of NCP was 2.9 (11). However, most of these studies employed daily reporting cases at very early epidemic stage or were purely based on mathematical modeling.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 60%

“…Several studies have described the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCP, and have demonstrated that it can transmitted between humans (4,6). A few studies have also estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of NCP (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11). For instance, Li et al computed the R0 of 2.2 using daily NCP data before January 4 in Wuhan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

Liu

Xiao

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

274

228

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Rationale: Several studies have estimated basic production number of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). However, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP during the outbreak remain unclear. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the basic and time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP across China, and compared them with SARS. Methods: Data on NCP cases by February 7, 2020 were collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing and Hong Kong during 2002-2003 were also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0) and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of NCP and SARS. Measurements and main results: As of February 7, 2020, 34,598 NCP cases were identified in China, and daily confirmed cases decreased after February 4. The doubling time of NCP nationwide was 2.4 days which was shorter than that of SARS in Guangdong (14.3 days), Hong Kong (5.7 days) and Beijing (12.4 days). The R0 of NCP cases nationwide and in Wuhan were 4.5 and 4.4 respectively, which were higher than R0 of SARS in Guangdong (R0=2.3), Hongkong (R0=2.3), and Beijing (R0=2.6). The Rt for NCP continuously decreased especially after January 16 nationwide and in Wuhan. The R0 for secondary NCP cases in Guangdong was 0.6, and the Rt values were less than 1 during the epidemic. Conclusions:NCP may have a higher transmissibility than SARS, and the efforts of containing the outbreak are effective.However, the efforts are needed to persist in for reducing time-varying reproduction number below one. now named as Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP), occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The disease has rapidly spread from Wuhan to other areas. As a novel virus, the time-varying transmission dynamics of NCP remain unclear, and it is also important to compare it with SARS.What This Study Adds to the Field: We compared the transmission dynamics of NCP with SARS, and found that NCP has a higher transmissibility than SARS. Time-varying production number indicates that rigorous control measures taken by governments are effective across China, and persistent efforts are needed to be taken for reducing instantaneous reproduction number below one. author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 60%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

Liu

Xiao

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

274

228

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“…We notice that there is a delay of 14 days between symptom onset and laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 between the two datasets which are largely the same group of patients, see Figure 3. Namely, if we put back data in R. Li et al (2020) by 14 days, it largely matches data in Liu et al (2020). Thus, we assume a proportion of daily cases (reporting rate) will be reported after 14 days since their infectiousness onset (which is generally no later than their symptom onset).…”

Section: Data Analysesmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…We fill the missing data before that from several retrospective studies. Among them data in R. Li et al (2020) are daily symptom onset records, while those in Liu et al (2020) are daily confirmations. We notice that there is a delay of 14 days between symptom onset and laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 between the two datasets which are largely the same group of patients, see Figure 3.…”

Section: Data Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action

Lin

Zhao

Gao

et al. 2020

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

1,095

1,034

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has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.

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“…Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model (Majumder and Mandl, 2020). Four studies estimated R 0 by directly fitting their models to incidence data (Read et al, 2020a;Liu et al, 2020;Majumder and Mandl, 2020). The remaining three studies estimated R 0 by comparing the predicted number of cases from their models with the estimated number of total cases by January 18 (between 1,000 and 9,7000 ) Some of these studies have now been published in peer-reviewed journals (Riou and Althaus, 2020b; or have been updated with better uncertainty quantification (Read et al, 2020b).…”

Section: Description Of the Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak

Park

Champredon

Earn

et al. 2020

Preprint

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A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has recently emerged as a global threat. As the epidemic progresses, many disease modelers have focused on estimating the basic reproductive number R 0 -the average number of secondary cases caused by a primary case in an otherwise susceptible population. The modeling approaches and resulting estimates of R 0 vary widely, despite relying on similar data sources. Here, we present a novel statistical framework for comparing and combining different estimates of R 0 across a wide range of models by decomposing the basic reproductive number into three key quantities: the exponential growth rate r, the mean generation intervalḠ, and the generation-interval dispersion κ. We then apply our framework to early estimates of R 0 for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. We show that many early R 0 estimates are overly confident. Our results emphasize the importance of propagating uncertainties in all components of R 0 , including the shape of the generation-interval distribution, in efforts to estimate R 0 at the outset of an epidemic.

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Transmission Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Cited by 238 publications

References 0 publications

Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China

A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action

Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak

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