Transmission Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus A(H5Nx) Clade 2.3.4.4, North America, 2014–2015

Lee, Dong Hun; Torchetti, Mia Kim; Hicks, Joseph T.; Killian, Mary Lea; Bahl, Justin; Pantin‐Jackwood, Mary J.; Swayne, David E.

doi:10.3201/eid2410.171891

Cited by 51 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Additionally, other variables that represent potential migratory stopover habitats, such as Important Bird Areas and agricultural land, were not supported within the model, suggesting that if wild birds contributed to HPAI dispersal within the Midwest, their role was limited. This further supports previous studies, which indicated that the midwestern portion of the outbreak was driven by inter-farm transmission [11,12,14]. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain HPAI transmission between farms during the 2015 outbreak, including equipment sharing, personnel overlap, and aerosolization.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Whole genome HPAI H5N2 sequences collected, isolated and sequenced by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) during the 2014-2015 North American HPAI outbreak served as the basis for the analyzed data set. Full description of their collection and sequencing has been reported elsewhere [14]. A subset of this sequence data was selected to better investigate the farm-to-farm transmission dynamics of the midwestern portion of the HPAI H5N2 outbreak.…”

Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A subset of this sequence data was selected to better investigate the farm-to-farm transmission dynamics of the midwestern portion of the HPAI H5N2 outbreak. This subset was defined by the following inclusion criteria: 1) sequences isolated from commercial domestic poultry samples and 2) membership of the sequence in a phylogenetically distinct group, as determined by maximum likelihood estimation by Lee, et al [14]. These viruses represented midwestern HPAI-positive poultry premises from the latter part of the outbreak, which was defined by a rapid increase in incidence within the midwestern poultry industries.…”

Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite frequent reports of wild birds on the grounds and within barns of HPAIpositive turkey premises [10], a case-control study found no significant difference in exposure to wild birds between positive turkey premises and matched controls [11]. Similarly, one phylodynamic analysis found no evidence of continued HPAI introductions into the midwestern poultry industries [12], but others have suggested multiple introductions [13,14]. Geographic and environmental variables, such as human population, agricultural, climatological, and ecological measures, may help explain farm-to-farm transmission observed within the poultry industries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agricultural and geographic factors shaped the North American 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak

et al. 2020

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The 2014-2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5NX outbreak represents the largest and most expensive HPAI outbreak in the United States to date. Despite extensive traditional and molecular epidemiological studies, factors associated with the spread of HPAI among midwestern poultry premises remain unclear. To better understand the dynamics of this outbreak, 182 full genome HPAI H5N2 sequences isolated from commercial layer chicken and turkey production premises were analyzed using evolutionary models able to accommodate epidemiological and geographic information. Epidemiological compartmental models embedded in a phylogenetic framework provided evidence that poultry type acted as a barrier to the transmission of virus among midwestern poultry farms. Furthermore, after initial introduction, the propagation of HPAI cases was self-sustainable within the commercial poultry industries. Discrete trait diffusion models indicated that within state viral transitions occurred more frequently than inter-state transitions. Distance and sample size were very strongly supported as associated with viral transition between county groups (Bayes Factor > 30.0). Together these findings indicate that the different types of midwestern poultry industries were not a single homogenous population, but rather, the outbreak was shaped by poultry industries and geographic factors.chances of viral movement between two locations. While many theories have been proposed to explain the transmission of virus among poultry farms, presented evidence suggests human-mediated viral transportation played a key role in the spread of the highly pathogenic H5N2 outbreak in North America.Agricultural and geographic factors of the 2015 HPAI US outbreak PLOS Pathogens | https://doi.org/10.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Agricultural and geographic factors shaped the North American 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak

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“…Despite frequent reports of wild birds on the grounds and within barns of HPAI-positive turkey premises (10), a case-control study found no significant difference in exposure to wild birds between positive turkey premises and matched controls (11). Similarly, one phylodynamic analysis found no evidence of continued HPAI introductions into the Midwestern poultry industries (12), but other models have suggested multiple introductions (13,14). Geographic and environmental variables, such as human population, agricultural, climatological, and ecological measures, may help explain farm-to-farm transmission observed within the poultry industries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural and geographic factors shaped the North American 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak

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et al. 2019

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16 KEYWORDS: highly pathogenic avian influenza, phylogenetics, phylodynamcs, avian disease, 17 Bayesian inference, coalescent models, discrete trait evolution, generalized linear model 18 2 19 ABSTRACT 20 The 2014 -2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5NX outbreak represents the 21 largest and most expensive HPAI outbreak in the United States to date. Despite extensive 22 traditional and molecular epidemiological studies, factors associated with the spread of HPAI 23 among midwestern poultry premises remain unclear. To better understand the dynamics of this 24 outbreak, 182 full genome HPAI H5N2 sequences isolated from commercial layer chicken and 25 turkey production premises were analyzed using evolutionary models modified to incorporate 26 epidemiological and geographic information. Epidemiological compartmental models 27 constructed in a phylogenetic framework provided evidence that poultry type acted as a barrier to 28 the transmission of virus among midwestern poultry farms. Furthermore, after initial 29 introduction, a continuous external source of virus was not needed to explain the propagation of 30 HPAI cases within the commercial poultry industries. Discrete trait diffusion models indicated 31 that within state viral transitions occurred more frequently than inter-state transitions. Distance, 32 road density and proportion of water coverage were all supported as associated with viral 33 transition between county groups (Bayes Factor > 3.0). Together these findings indicate that the 34 midwestern poultry industries were not a single homogenous population, but rather, the outbreak 35 was shaped by poultry sectors and geographic factors.

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Highly pathogenic avian influenza is an emerging disease threat to wild birds in North America

et al. 2022

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Prior to the emergence of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (Gs/GD) H5N1 influenza A virus, the long‐held and well‐supported paradigm was that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks were restricted to poultry, the result of cross‐species transmission of precursor viruses from wild aquatic birds that subsequently gained pathogenicity in domestic birds. Therefore, management agencies typically adopted a prevention, control, and eradication strategy that included strict biosecurity for domestic bird production, isolation of infected and exposed flocks, and prompt depopulation. In most cases, this strategy has proved sufficient for eradicating HPAI. Since 2002, this paradigm has been challenged with many detections of viral descendants of the Gs/GD lineage among wild birds, most of which have been associated with sporadic mortality events. Since the emergence and evolution of the genetically distinct clade 2.3.4.4 Gs/GD lineage HPAI viruses in approximately 2010, there have been further increases in the occurrence of HPAI in wild birds and geographic spread through migratory bird movement. A prominent example is the introduction of clade 2.3.4.4 Gs/GD HPAI viruses from East Asia to North America via migratory birds in autumn 2014 that ultimately led to the largest outbreak of HPAI in the history of the United States. Given the apparent maintenance of Gs/GD lineage HPAI viruses in a global avian reservoir; bidirectional virus exchange between wild and domestic birds facilitating the continued adaptation of Gs/GD HPAI viruses in wild bird hosts; the current frequency of HPAI outbreaks in wild birds globally, and particularly in Eurasia where Gs/GD HPAI viruses may now be enzootic; and ongoing dispersal of AI viruses from East Asia to North America via migratory birds, HPAI now represents an emerging disease threat to North American wildlife. This recent paradigm shift implies that management of HPAI in domestic birds alone may no longer be sufficient to eradicate HPAI viruses from a given country or region. Rather, agencies managing wild birds and their habitats may consider the development or adoption of mitigation strategies to minimize introductions to poultry, to reduce negative impacts on wild bird populations, and to diminish adverse effects to stakeholders using wildlife resources. The main objective of this review is, therefore, to provide information that will assist wildlife managers in developing mitigation strategies or approaches for dealing with outbreaks of Gs/GD HPAI in wild birds in the form of preparedness, surveillance, research, communications, and targeted management actions. Resultant outbreak response plans and actions may represent meaningful steps of wildlife managers toward the use of collaborative and multi‐jurisdictional One Health approaches when it comes to the detection, investigation, and mitigation of emerging viruses at the human‐domestic animal‐wildlife interface.

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Transmission Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus A(H5Nx) Clade 2.3.4.4, North America, 2014–2015

Cited by 51 publications

References 38 publications

Agricultural and geographic factors shaped the North American 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak

Agricultural and geographic factors shaped the North American 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak

Agricultural and geographic factors shaped the North American 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is an emerging disease threat to wild birds in North America

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