Transmission dynamics of Monkeypox virus: a mathematical modelling approach

Abstract

Monkeypox (MPX), similar to both smallpox and cowpox, is caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV). It occurs mostly in remote Central and West African communities, close to tropical rain forests. It is caused by the monkeypox virus in the Poxviridae family, which belongs to the genus Orthopoxvirus. We develop and analyse a deterministic mathematical model for the monkeypox virus. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined. It is shown that the model undergo backward bifurcation, where the locally stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with an endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, we determine conditions under which the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, numerical simulations to demonstrate our findings and brief discussions are provided. The findings indicate that isolation of infected individuals in the human population helps to reduce disease transmission.

Is there a need of monkeypox vaccine amidst the hesitancy of COVID-19 immunization in Pakistan?

“…Additionally, the virus can spread through familiar bedding and clothing, as well as direct contact with sores, body fluids, and scabs [ 6 ]. The signs and symptoms of MPXV are fever, headache, back pain, myalgia, lymphadenopathy, and a maculopapular rash that grows into vesicles and whose onset varies from 5–21 days [ 7 ]. Monkeypox can lead to all possible complications such as bacterial infections, encephalitis, pneumonitis, and keratitis [ 8 ].…”

Mathematical modelling for the transmission dynamics of Rift Valley fever virus with human host

“…To gain a better knowledge of the disease's transmission dynamics and control, many models have been built and studied using various methodologies. These studies include the following, [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. There is much previous research that studied critically the transmission dynamics and contagiousness of this disease in different countries alongside its evolution, most especially recently where its dynamics are considered with the COVID-19 outbreak.…”

Monkeypox cases: Emerging infectious disease, risk factors and diagnosis

“…Monkeypox primarily occurs in central and west Africa, often in proximity to tropical rainforests, and has been increasingly appearing in urban areas [2]. Monkeypox is caused by monkeypox virus, a member of the Orthopoxvirus genus in the family Poxviridae [3]. This is mainly found in remote Central and West African communities, close to tropical rain forests [3].…”

“…Monkeypox is caused by monkeypox virus, a member of the Orthopoxvirus genus in the family Poxviridae [3]. This is mainly found in remote Central and West African communities, close to tropical rain forests [3]. In 2017, the reemergence of monkey pox virus is reported at Bayelsa state and over 39 years ago, there was no reported cases of this disease in Nigeria, before the travelers export it from Nigeria to various parts of the countries between 2018 and 2019 respectively [4].…”