Travel Time Reliability with Risk-Sensitive Travelers

Chen, Anthony; Ji, Zhaowang; Recker, Will

doi:10.3141/1783-04

Cited by 94 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…It is intuitive to represent the above-mentioned variations and their impacts on network performance using probability distributions (Chen et al 2002). Arnott et al (1999) considered the case where the ratio of demand to capacity is stochastic and examined the effect of information on total social cost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Congestion Behavior and Tolls in a Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity

Xiao

Huang

Liu

2015

Transportation Science

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In this paper we investigate a bottleneck model in which the capacity of the bottleneck is assumed stochastic and follows a uniform distribution. The commuters' departure time choice is assumed to follow the user equilibrium principle according to mean trip cost. The analytical solution of the proposed model is derived. Both the analytical and numerical results show that the capacity variability would indeed change the commuters' travel behavior by increasing the mean trip cost and lengthening the peak period. We then design congestion pricing schemes within the framework of the new stochastic bottleneck model, for both a time-varying toll and a single-step coarse toll, and prove that the proposed piecewise time-varying toll can effectively cut down, and even eliminate, the queues behind the bottleneck. We also find that the single-step coarse toll could either advance or postpone the earliest departure time. Furthermore, the numerical results show that the proposed pricing schemes can indeed improve the efficiency of the stochastic bottleneck through decreasing the system's total travel cost.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Congestion Behavior and Tolls in a Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity

Xiao

Huang

Liu

2015

Transportation Science

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“…Research is rather limited on demand-and-supply variation effects on travel time reliability in an uncertain environment. For example, a recent report was examined how individual travelers with different risk-taking attitudes responded to such changes (Chen et al 2001). Route choice models that were originally proposed were based on the assumption that all travelers are aware of the travel times of a certain network (deterministic models [Beckmann et al 1956] as well as stochastic models [Daganzo amd Sheffi 1977;Fisk 1980;Sheffi and Powell 1982]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Users’ Perceptive Evaluation of Bus Arrival Time Deviations in Stochastic Networks

Daskalakis¹,

Stathopoulos²

2008

JPT

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“…The parameters can, in principle, be estimated from surveys concerning the willingness-to-pay for a more reliable transport system (e.g. Chen et al 2002).…”

Section: Discussion Of the Utility Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Agent Transport Simulations and Economic Evaluation

Nagel¹,

Grether²,

Beuck³

et al. 2008

Agent Based Models for Economic Policy Advice

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SummaryTolls are frequently discussed policies to reduce traffic in cities. However, road pricing measures are seldom implemented due to high investments and unpopularity. Transportation planning tools can support planning authorities by solving those problems if they take into account the following aspects: -Demographic attributes like income and time constraints -Time reactions to the policy -Schedule changes of population's individuals during the whole day Our approach uses multi-agent simulations to model and simulate full daily plans. Each of our agents has a utility function that appraises the performance of a typical, microscopically simulated day. The sum of all utility changes to a policy change can be interpreted as the change in the system's welfare thus the economic evaluation of a measure straightforward. The approach is tested with travel behavior of the Zurich metropolitan region in Switzerland. Several tolling schemes are investigated. It is shown that the simulation can be used to model travelers' reactions to time-dependent tolls in a way most existing transportation planning tools are not able to do. It is demonstrated that route adjustment only, as is done in many traditional transport planning packages, results in no economic gains from the tolls. As time-dependent tolls are a much-debated subject in transportation politics, the ability to fully model such tolls and the reactions of travelers may help to find better toll schemes. In a world where individuals have more and more freedom to schedule their daily plans, agent-based simulations offer an intuitive way to research complex topics with lots of interdependencies.

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Travel Time Reliability with Risk-Sensitive Travelers

Cited by 94 publications

References 3 publications

Congestion Behavior and Tolls in a Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity

Congestion Behavior and Tolls in a Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity

Users’ Perceptive Evaluation of Bus Arrival Time Deviations in Stochastic Networks

Multi-Agent Transport Simulations and Economic Evaluation

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