Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduousboreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada

Goldblum, David; Rigg, Lesley S.

doi:10.1139/x05-185

Cited by 112 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Based on these studies, boreal forests are projected to temporarily become a carbon source as deciduous forests are expected to move northward, but only after evergreen withdrawal [49], while the artic becomes a sink as boreal species migrate into regions previously classified as tundra [48][49][50][51]. Our results project evergreen forests moving into higher latitudes [49,52,53], and deciduous forests moving into areas previous classified as evergreen [54]. These changes at the PFT level ( Figure 5) likely mask larger and more complex underlying changes at the species level.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Flanagan

Hurtt

Fisk

et al. 2016

Climate

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There are strong relationships between climate and ecosystems. With the prospect of anthropogenic forcing accelerating climate change, there is a need to understand how terrestrial vegetation responds to this change as it influences the carbon balance. Previous studies have primarily addressed this question using empirically based models relating the observed pattern of vegetation and climate, together with scenarios of potential future climate change, to predict how vegetation may redistribute. Unlike previous studies, here we use an advanced mechanistic, individually based, ecosystem model to predict the terrestrial vegetation response from future climate change. The use of such a model opens up opportunities to test with remote sensing data, and the possibility of simulating the transient response to climate change over large domains. The model was first run with a current climatology at half-degree resolution and compared to remote sensing data on dominant plant functional types for northern North America for validation. Future climate data were then used as inputs to predict the equilibrium response of vegetation in terms of dominant plant functional type and carbon redistribution. At the domain scale, total forest cover changed by~2% and total carbon storage increased by~8% in response to climate change. These domain level changes were the result of much larger gross changes within the domain. Evergreen forest cover decreased 48% and deciduous forest cover increased 77%. The dominant plant functional type changed on 58% of the sites, while total carbon in deciduous vegetation increased 107% and evergreen vegetation decreased 31%. The percent of terrestrial carbon from deciduous and evergreen plant functional types changed from 27%/73% under current climate conditions, to 54%/46% under future climate conditions. These large predicted changes in vegetation and carbon in response to future climate change are comparable to previous empirically based estimates, and motivate the need for future development with this mechanistic model to estimate the transient response to future climate changes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Flanagan

Hurtt

Fisk

et al. 2016

Climate

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“…Coupled with increasing uncertainty surrounding inter-annual variability of precipitation in the future (Kharin et al, 2007), changes in plant population and community dynamics become an area of concern (McCarragher et al, 2011;Walck et al, 2011). Noticeable shifts in species distributions have already been documented (Beckage et al, 2008;Lenoir et al, 2008), and are predicted to continue in the future (Zhu et al, 2012) as species attempt to maintain their bioclimatic niches (Goldblum and Rigg, 2005;Iverson and Prasad, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing tree germination resilience to global warming: a manipulative experiment using sugar maple (Acer saccharum)

et al. 2016

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A climate warming of 2-5°C by the end of the century will impact the likelihood of seed germination of sugar maple (Acer saccharum), a dominant tree species which possesses a restricted temperature range to ensure successful reproduction. We hypothesize that seed origin affects germination due to the species' local adaptation to temperature. We tested this by experimentally investigating the effect of incubation temperature and temperature shifting on sugar maple seed germination from seven different seed sources representing the current species range. Survival analysis showed that seeds from the northern range had the highest germination percentage, while the southern range had the lowest. The mean germination percentage under constant temperatures was best when temperatures were ≤5°C, whereas germination percentages plummeted at temperatures ≥11°C (5.8%). Cool shifting increased germination by 19.1% over constant temperature treatments and by 29.3% over warm shifting treatments. Both shifting treatments caused earlier germination relative to the constant temperature treatments. A climate warming of up to +5°C is shown to severely reduce germination of seeds from the southern range. However, under a more pronounced warming of 7°C, seed germination at the northern range become more affected and now comparable to those found from the southern range. This study states that the high seed germination percentage found in sugar maple at the northern range makes it fairly resilient to the warmest projected temperature increase for the next century. These findings provide forest managers with the necessary information to make accurate projections when considering strategies for future regeneration while also considering climate warming.

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“…There is a selection of approaches for modeling tree growth ranging from relatively simply models using climatic data only (Laroque & Smith 2003, Goldblum & Rigg 2005, Takahashi & Okuhara 2013) to more complex ones using additional ecophysiological variables as predictors for regression equations (Rathgeber et al 2005, Girardin et al 2008. For instance, Laroque & Smith (2003) and Takahashi & Okuhara (2013) used temperature and precipitation to predict tree-ring width, while Girardin et al (2008) extended this empirical approach by incorporating process-based physiological model results into the regression equations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

Bauwe¹,

Jurasinski²,

Scharnweber³

et al. 2016

iForest

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Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, changes to tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at three pure stands, and for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested through a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R²s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21 st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas common beech and pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak.

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Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduousboreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada

Cited by 112 publications

References 31 publications

Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Assessing tree germination resilience to global warming: a manipulative experiment using sugar maple (Acer saccharum)

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

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Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduousboreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada

Cited by 112 publications

References 31 publications

Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Assessing tree germination resilience to global warming: a manipulative experiment using sugar maple (Acer saccharum)

Impact of climate change on tree-ring growth of Scots pine, common beech and pedunculate oak in northeastern Germany

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Tree growth response to climate change at the deciduousboreal forest ecotone, Ontario, Canada