Tree height explains mortality risk during an intense drought

Stovall, Atticus; Shugart, Herman H.; Yang, Xi

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12380-6

Cited by 254 publications

(256 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…, Stovall et al. ) and increasingly unsuitable climate conditions for establishment (Andrus et al. ), the capacity for P. engelmannii to produce higher abundances of cones at smaller sizes and younger ages than A. lasiocarpa in open‐canopy forests implies that P. engelmannii seed availability may be less limiting than A. lasiocarpa for future seedling establishment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers

et al. 2020

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2020. Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers. Ecosphere 11(5):Abstract. Understanding potential limitations to tree regeneration is essential as rates of tree mortality increase in response to direct (extreme drought) and indirect (bark beetle outbreaks, wildfire) effects of a warming climate. Seed availability is increasingly recognized as an important limitation for tree regeneration. High variability in seed cone production is a trait common among many northern temperate conifers, but few studies examine the determinants of individual tree cone production and how they vary with stand structure. In subalpine forests in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, we monitored >1600 Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) and Abies lasiocarpa (subalpine fir) trees for cone presence (an indicator of reproductive maturity) and a subset of those trees for cone abundance (an indicator of seed production) from 2016 to 2018. We constructed mixed models to test how individual tree cone presence and cone abundance were affected by tree size and age as well as forest attributes at the neighborhood-and stand-scales. The probability of cone presence and cone abundance increased with tree size and age for A. lasiocarpa and P. engelmannii. The youngest ages of trees with cones present were more than 100 yr later for individuals in high basal area (BA) stands (>65 m 2 /ha) relative to low BA stands (<25 m 2 /ha). P. engelmannii produced many more cones than A. lasiocarpa at similar sizes, especially in young, low BA stands. Our findings reveal how differences in tree sizes and stand structures typically associated with time since last disturbance can affect seed production patterns for decades to well over a century. The consistent regional pattern of earlier and more abundant postfire establishment of P. engelmannnii vs. the delayed postfire establishment by A. lasiocarpa may be partially explained by species' differences in cone abundance by stand structure. The increasing loss of large, dominant cone-producing trees will significantly reduce seed production to support future tree regeneration and maintain forest cover. However, seed availability and resilience following disturbances may be less limiting than expected for species like P. engelmannii that have the capacity to produce more cones in open-canopy forests, such as recently disturbed areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers

et al. 2020

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“…For example Trugman et al (2018) showed multiple drought-related phenomena could be reproduced by a simulation model that incorporated drought-induced loss of sapwood conducting area. In particular, their model could simulate drought legacies in addition to greater mortality of larger or older trees during drought (Stovall et al 2019), and for multiple years after drought (e.g. Bigler et al 2007), consistent with Darcy's law (McDowell & Allen 2015).…”

Section: What Are the Underlying Mechanisms?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree growth sensitivity to climate is temporally variable

Peltier

Ogle

2020

Ecology Letters

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Despite a long history of discussion of 'non-stationarity' in dendrochronology, researchers and modellers in diverse fields commonly rely on the implicit assumption that tree growth responds to climate drivers in the same way at any given time. Synthesising recent work on drought legacies and other climate-related phenomena, we show tree growth responses to climate are temporally variable, and that abrupt variability is commonly observed in response to diverse events. Thus, we put forth a 'growth-climate sensitivity' framework for understanding temporal variability (including non-stationarity) in the sensitivity of tree growth to climate. We argue that temporal variability is ubiquitous, illustrating limits to the ways in which tree growth is often conceptualised. We present two conceptual hypotheses (homoeostatic sensitivity and dynamic sensitivity) for how tree growth sensitivity to climate varies, and evaluate the evidence for each. In doing so, we hope to motivate increased investigation of the temporal variability in tree growth through innovative disturbance or drought experiments, particularly via the inclusion of recovery treatments. Focusing on growth-climate sensitivity and its temporal variability can improve prediction of the future states and functioning of trees under climate change, and has the potential to be incorporable into predictive dynamic vegetation models.

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“…For example, Johnson et al [54] reported research conducted by Rehfeldt [55] that showed genetic differences of Douglas-fir were identified at elevational differences larger than 200 m, whereas genetic differences in ponderosa pine did not occur until 450 m. A genetic difference between two trees of the same species may indicate that one individual tree is not perfectly tuned for a given site; while changes in climatic conditions associated with these elevation ranges are expected to affect the growth characteristics of individual trees with genetic differences [56], the magnitude of climatic change before mortality occurs remains unknown. Additionally, trees may respond differently to changes in climate within a species based on their size and age [57,58], such as through drought-induced mortality caused by carbon starvation or hydraulic failure [59], which the dClim rule does not consider. This study highlighted the effect of the dClim rule, and Climate-FVS users should consider varying the dClim values to determine the effect on their response variables.…”

Section: Carbon Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hundred year projected carbon loads and species compositions for four National Forests in the northwestern USA

Fekety

Crookston²,

Hudak

et al. 2020

Carbon Balance Manage

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Background: Forests are an important component of the global carbon balance, and climate sensitive growth and yield models are an essential tool when predicting future forest conditions. In this study, we used the dynamic climate capability of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to simulate future (100 year) forest conditions on four National Forests in the northwestern USA: Payette National Forest (NF), Ochoco NF, Gifford Pinchot NF, and Siuslaw NF. Using Forest Inventory and Analysis field plots, aboveground carbon estimates and species compositions were simulated with Climate-FVS for the period between 2016 and 2116 under a no climate change scenario and a future climate scenario. We included a sensitivity analysis that varied calculated disturbance probabilities and the dClim rule, which is one method used by Climate-FVS to introduce climate-related mortality. The dClim rule initiates mortality when the predicted climate change at a site is greater than the change in climate associated with a predetermined shift in elevation. Results:Results of the simulations indicated the dClim rule influenced future carbon projections more than estimates of disturbance probability. Future aboveground carbon estimates increased and species composition remained stable under the no climate change scenario. The future climate scenario we tested resulted in less carbon at the end of the projections compared to the no climate change scenarios for all cases except when the dClim rule was disengaged on the Payette NF. Under the climate change scenario, species compositions shifted to climatically adapted species or early successional species. Conclusion:This research highlights the need to consider climate projections in long-term planning or future forest conditions may be unexpected. Forest managers and planners could perform similar simulations and use the results as a planning tool when analyzing climate change effects at the National Forest level.

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Tree height explains mortality risk during an intense drought

Cited by 254 publications

References 38 publications

Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers

Reproductive maturity and cone abundance vary with tree size and stand basal area for two widely distributed conifers

Tree growth sensitivity to climate is temporally variable

Hundred year projected carbon loads and species compositions for four National Forests in the northwestern USA

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