Trend in Area, Production and Yield of Coffee in India

Prabha, S. Aruna; Sivakumar, S. D.; Murugananthi, D.; Joel, A. John

doi:10.9734/ajaees/2021/v39i1130755

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…"The ARIMA is an extrapolation method, which requires historical time series data of underlying variable. The methodology refers to the set of procedures for identifying, fitting, and checking ARIMA models with time series data" [10][11][12].…”

Section: Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Predicting the Price of Coconut in Tamil Nadu Market

Ahalya,

Murugananthi,

Rohini

et al. 2023

AJAEES

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Aims: The study aims to comprehensively analyze coconut cultivation trends in Tamil Nadu, covering area, production, yield, and market prices. Through data analysis, it seeks to reveal historical shifts in cultivation practices. The study also strives to develop precise price forecasting models for Coimbatore and Pollachi markets, enhancing insights into agricultural dynamics and enabling accurate price predictions. Study Design: Exploratory research design. Place and Duration of Study: The present study was conducted in the year 2023 during July and August Methodology: Secondary data was used for the present study. Secondary Data on area , production and productivity of coconut in Tamil Nadu was collected from 2000 to 2022 and price of coconut from 2012 to 2023 in selected market was collected. The research utilizes Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Analysis to identify the past trends in the area, production, and productivity of coconut in Tamil Nadu. Additionally, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are employed to forecast the future trens in coconut price in Coimbatore and Pollachi market. Results: Area, Production and Productivity of coconut in Tamilnadu has shown a positive trend. Coconut cultivation is growing steadily with a 1.56% increase in cultivation area and a 2.089% rise in production, while productivity is also improving by 1.19% annually, indicating positive growth. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for Coconut in the Coimbatore market and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) for coconut in the Pollachi market was found to provide the best fit for predicting the price of coconut in both markets. Conclusion: Increase in trend in area, production and productivity was observed in Tamil Nadu. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was found to provide the best fit for predicting the price of coconut in both markets. The model predicted declining price in the forthcoming months (August – September, 2023). Increased area under cultivation and increased production of coconut in all the major growing States are the major reasons for declining prices. Efforts have to be made to increase the consumption of coconut value added products to sustain the price of coconut in the coming years.

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Section: Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on Predicting the Price of Coconut in Tamil Nadu Market

Ahalya,

Murugananthi,

Rohini

et al. 2023

AJAEES

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“…Initial Investment expenses are part of the establishment costs and function as fixed costs [14]. Land preparation, line marking, opening and closing of pits, raising and staking of shade plants, planting material costs, fencing costs, etc.…”

Section: Initial Investment Cost Of Araku Valley Coffee (1 St Year)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Araku Valley Coffee Production study in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh, India

Sri

Rohini²,

Kumar³

et al. 2022

AJAEES

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Aims: This study mainly intends to analyze the production side of coffee that would throw light on the scenario of coffee growers to understand the cost structure and returns from coffee cultivation in the study area. Study Design: Purposive sampling technique was adopted for the current study on Araku valley coffee, where the primary data has been collected from 120 coffee growers. Place and Duration of Study: The research was carried out in the Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh and the primary data was collected from April to July 2022. Methodology: Costs and returns of coffee cultivation were estimated for Araku Valley Coffee in the study area. Results: The establishment cost of Araku Valley coffee in the Visakhapatnam district was Rs. 144039.06/ha, which encompassed both the initial investment costs and maintenance costs during the coffee gestation period. The cost of cultivation during the coffee fruit-bearing period was Rs. 611353.67/ha. With this total cost per hectare, the cost per Kg of coffee produced turns out to be Rs 9.83/kg. Fresh fruit berries were sold on the market for an average price of Rs. 40/kg. Net profits were Rs. 2317053.55/ha while gross returns were Rs. 3072446.28/ha. The BCR, NPV@12% discount rate, and IRR recorded were 1.68, Rs.144581, and 28.7% respectively. It was an undeniable fact that raising coffee plantations in Andhra Pradesh was lucrative and could be operated on a commercial scale for fostering profits over a generation. Conclusion: The pace of tribal development in the Visakhapatnam district was sustained in large part by coffee production. From a long-term viewpoint, this study signifies and validates the real economics of coffee production for sustainable resource management, profitable revenue generation, and expanded employment opportunities.

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“…Coffee from India is the best shade-grown light coffee in the world. Among plantation crops, coffee has contributed significantly to the Indian economy during the last 50 years [4,5,6]. Coffee plays vital role in Indian economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both the varieties of coffee has been more or less equal in its area, production and productivity under traditional areas except Tamil Nadu. Tamil Nadu is the one of the State which has more production of Arabica coffee comparing with Robusta Coffee [6]. Since every Indian coffee grower spends his entire time in coffee production, it is no miracle or wonder that India produces extraordinary variety of coffee and exports it to different parts of the world over 150 th years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the present study, researcher's main purpose of the study to forecast the annual amount of Arabica and Robusta coffee production and yield in India, and used of time series data from 1986 to 2023 for the study. [6] studied the coffee trend in area, production and yield in India from 1985-2000, and he was found that the best fitted ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and (1, 1, 0) models for forecasting of coffee production. Chandra and Brahme, [9] researchers' studied the groundnut trend in production and productivity in India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Arabica and Robusta Coffee Production for Sustainable Agriculture Development

Chandra

2024

AJEBA

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In the present study, we have used Box-Jenkins approaches an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) for modeling and forecasting of annual amount of Arabica and Robusta coffee production and yield (ARCPY) in India. In this study used time series data was collected from the official website of the coffee board of India from 1986 to 2023 (38 observations). Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test has used for testing the stationarity of the time series, and the appropriate ARIMA model has selected based on minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The ARIMA models has compared with the other ARIMA models with respect to forecast accuracy measures, and the residuals has diagnosed for possible presence of autocorrelation, and white noise heteroscedasticity (WNH) test of the fitted models. The MAPE value of ACP and ACY has 8.94 and 9.35 percent respectively shows highly accurate forecasting percentage rate respectively. While, the MAPE value of RCP and RCY has 16.03 and 11.43 percent respectively shows good accurate forecasting percentage rate respectively. Thus, we found the ARIMA (2, 1, 4), (3, 1, 2), (0, 1, 3) and (2, 0, 1) models for Arabica and Robusta coffee; which has observed as the best suitable model for predicting the future annual amount of Arabica coffee production (ACP), Arabica coffee yield (ACY), Robusta coffee production (RCP) and Robusta coffee yield (RCY) respectively, and we have estimated that the annual amount of ACP and ACY achieved in the year 2023-24 from 97379.67 MTs, and 472.29 kg/hectare respectively to 93272.91 MTs, and 379.31 kg/hectare respectively in the year 2034-35 will decrease, and the annual amount of RCP and RCY achieved in the year 2023-24 from 268655.21 MTs, and 1110.68 kg/hectare respectively to 318614.85 MTs, and 1012.90 kg/hectare respectively in the year 2034-35 will reach.

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Trend in Area, Production and Yield of Coffee in India

Cited by 4 publications

References 1 publication

Study on Predicting the Price of Coconut in Tamil Nadu Market

Study on Predicting the Price of Coconut in Tamil Nadu Market

Araku Valley Coffee Production study in Visakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh, India

Econometric Modeling and Forecasting of Arabica and Robusta Coffee Production for Sustainable Agriculture Development

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